Wyoming vs. San Jose State Betting Odds
This is quite a disgusting game. However, it’s also a Mountain West Conference game at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday, and it’s definitely worth betting.
Wyoming entered the season with some high expectations, but they’ve largely failed to meet them. While they’re 4-3 on the season, they’re just 1-6 against the spread, meaning they’re failing to dominate the games they should.
Moreover, the Cowboys suffered maybe the worst loss of the college football season last Saturday. As 20-point favorites, Wyoming lost outright to New Mexico 14-3. Laramie residents are quite unhappy with their team right now.
Meanwhile, San Jose State has been very middling. They managed to pull out an unlikely cover last week, defeating UNLV 27-20 as six-point underdogs. But there’s still a lot of unanswered questions about this team, specifically on the offensive side.
So, in a matchup between two underwhelming teams, what can bettors expect?
Wyoming Cowboys Odds
Despite the bad rap the Cowboys have been given, the team has been rather effective from an efficiency standpoint.
Specifically, on defense, where they rank 25th in Defensive Success Rate and grade out as college football’s 17tj best defense. The team has allowed just 21 points per game this season, and the Cowboys have made impressive defensive stands against good defenses.
For example: Against Jake Haener and Fresno State, Wyoming allowed just 17 points and 259 total yards.
However, they also scored exactly zero points in that game. Plus, the Cowboys managed to defeat the hapless UConn Huskies just 24-22.
But that brings attention to the Cowboys’ bigger issue: The offense. Behind fourth-year starter Sean Chambers and former 1200-yard rusher Xazavian Valladay, this offense was going to be effective.
But the offense has averaged just 4.0 yards per rush and Chambers has posted a pathetic 6:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. All-in-all, the Cowboys are averaging just 22 points per game, which is a big step down from their 26.5 last season and their 25.4 the year before.
San Jose State Odds
The San Jose State offense is brutal to watch.
They rank 113th in points per game and 101st in yards per game. They rank 108th in Standard Downs Success Rate and then convert third downs at just a 37% rate. This offense doesn’t move the ball on early downs and then can’t convert on third and longs.
Part of that has to do with the offensive line, which ranks 95th in Line Yards. The other part has to do with the Nick (Starkel) and Nick (Nash) quarterback duo, who have combined to complete about 53% of their passes with an 11:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The defense, thankfully, has been slightly better. Specifically, on the ground, where they’ve held opposing offenses to just 3.4 yards per attempt and 125 rush yards per game.
The defense can keep the Spartans in games, but the offense doesn’t do anything with that.
Prediction and Pick:
My pick: Wyoming +3 (-115 at PointsBet)
It sickens me to back the Cowboys’ offense, but their defense can stand toe-to-toe with anyone in the Mountain West, and their offense is miles ahead of San Jose State’s.
Wyoming also has a huge advantage in the Red Zone, where the Cowboys are far superior in finishing drives on offense and defense.
Moreover, I’ve seen projections that make Wyoming closer to a one-point underdog than a three-point underdog. And in a messy game that’s sure to be on the lower-scoring side, I’d much rather take the team that’s catching points.
While Wyoming is just 1-6 against the spread this season, they laid an egg last week and I’m looking for them to bounce back strong in Week 9.