2026 NFL Draft Round 1 Mock Update, Draft Pick Over/Under Odds & Analysis
We are now less than two weeks from the 2026 NFL Draft. Below, I’ll provide my latest mock draft and provide betting insight into player Over/Under picks.
2026 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1 Update
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State
3. Arizona Cardinals: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
5. TRADE: Kansas City Chiefs: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
6. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
7. Washington Commanders: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (FL)
8. New Orleans Saints: Makai Lemon, WR, USC
9. TRADE: New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
10. Cincinnati Bengals: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
11. Miami Dolphins: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
12. Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
13. Los Angeles Rams: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (FL)
14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
16. New York Jets: Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
17. Detroit Lions: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
18. Minnesota Vikings: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
19. Carolina Panthers: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
20. Dallas Cowboys: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami (FL)
24. Cleveland Browns: Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana
25. Chicago Bears: Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
26. Buffalo Bills: Malachi Lawrence, EDGE, UCF
27. San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
28. Houston Texans: Chase Bisontis, OG, Texas A&M
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
30. Miami Dolphins: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
31. New England Patriots: Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
32. Seattle Seahawks: Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
Draft Pick Over/Under Betting Market
Below are 10 players with Over/Under markets available for which draft pick they will be selected with. When wagering on these, keep in mind that “Over” refers to a player going later than that number, where “Under” means earlier.
For example, if the line is 7.5, “Over” means No. 8 overall or later. Conversely, “Under” means No. 7 overall or earlier.
Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame, Running Back): Over/Under (5.5)
Player Draft Analysis
Running backs are often viewed as one of the more disposable positions in football. However, there aren’t many prospects like Love that come along. There are ample scenarios in which he could go top five including the Cardinals, Titans, or Giants taking him. Teams trading down to accumulate more assets and a more “ready” team might also take him.
This type of talent is rare so I’d take him in the top five, but you can get better value as the No. 4 pick instead.
Pick: Pass
Sonny Styles (Ohio State, Linebacker): Over/Under (5.5)
The Giants are a team that I fantasize about Styles landing with, because he and Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker would be unbelievably entertaining. I also see a universe where Titans head coach Robert Saleh sees him as his modern-day Fred Warner.
There are scenarios where these top-five teams trade down and Styles, who plays off the ball, falls a bit down the board.
I’ll take the over because I believe a team between picks No. 3 and No. 5 will trade down for him.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-140)
Carnell Tate (Ohio State, Wide Receiver): Over/Under (7.5)
Tate has emerged as the likely WR1 in this draft class after showing his excellent route-running, body control, and overall “completeness” as a wide receiver in 2025. He’s shown out even in offenses alongside other first-round pick wide receivers at Ohio State.
He didn’t run the fastest 40-time, but if he were about 10 pounds heavier, there’d be no question about the under.
There are reports that the Giants want to trade down, and Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice expressed a desire to have Tate on the team.
The Chiefs trade up to No. 5 and get their guy.
Pick: Pass
Rueben Bain, Jr. (Miami-Florida, Edge): Over/Under (8.5)
There’s a lot of talk about Bain Jr.’s arm length, and understandably so, as it’s in the 1st-percentile. No, I don’t mean that they’re long. Rather, they’re among the shortest at the position ever.
Bain Jr. wins with power, and he would bring something to most pass-rushing units that they may not have. The Chiefs are a popular landing spot for him at No. 9 overall (assuming no trade-ups), but there is a world where the Saints or Commanders also take him depending on whether Reese and Bailey go early.
I’ll take the value with the Under.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+185)
Caleb Downs (Ohio State, Safety): Over/Under (9.5)
Downs is a difficult one. From a purely football-player standpoint, there are more reliable and trustworthy. He’s fantastic in coverage and he’ll be an All-Pro caliber player, but he plays safety.
While this class isn’t as strong, we’ve seen many other highly-talented and highly-regarded safeties fall later than expected. A good example is Kyle Hamilton, who went No. 14 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, which didn’t see a quarterback come off the board until No. 20 overall.
Because of the position he plays, I’d take the Over.
Pick: Pass
Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State, Guard): Over/Under (14.5)
Ioane may very well be the only offensive lineman in this draft that no one has an issue with. That said, he is a guard. So like safety, he could fall a bit simply because of the position he plays.
The No. 14 pick are the Ravens, who need help on the interior to protect quarterback Lamar Jackson.
The problem with the Under for Ioane is that its hard to identify a team before the Ravens that would take him with the other talent on the board.
In a game of what appears to be the Ravens versus the field, I’ll take the field.
Pick: Pass
Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon, Tight End): Over/Under (15.5)
Player Draft Analysis
The line on Sadiq is right on the Buccaneers, and understandably so. They need some weapons to go alongside wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, especially with Mike Evans leaving and Chris Godwin at risk for injury.
In the mock draft above, I have them taking Sadiq but they also have several other positions of need. They need an offensive line and edge rusher, so they could pass on Sadiq.
I’ve had him going beyond pick No. 15 to the Panthers, so I’d lean toward that but it’s expensive.
Pick: Pass
Dillon Thieneman (Oregon, Safety): Over/Under (18.5)
This is a player I struggle with. He’s often been mocked (including by me) to the Vikings at No. 18 overall. In my mock draft above, I have him going No. 19 to the Panthers.
Thieneman had an incredible combine performance, which will certainly help his draft stock. Still, there’s the possibility of Downs slipping a bit which results in lowering the draft slot for both Thieneman and another fantastic safety in McNeil-Warren.
Going back to his position and my belief Downs’ draft slot could be a bit lower, I’ll lean towards the Over but this is a tough call. If -130 is too expensive then pass.
Pick: Over 18.5 (-130)
Omar Copper (Indiana, Wide Receiver): Over/Under (23.5)
Opinions on Cooper Jr. are all over the board, including Daniel Jeremiah saying he wouldn’t be surprised if Cooper Jr. fell to the second round.
He’s an intriguing player because he’s fantastic after the catch, but he never eclipsed 1,000 yards in a season. Before this past season, he was primarily an outside receiver and caught just 28 passes in 2024.
Take the over, but teams like the Jets at No. 16 could easily snag him.
Pick: Over 23.5 (+110)
Ty Simpson (Alabama, Quarterback): Over/Under (24.5)
Player Draft Analysis
I didn’t have Simpson go in the first round of this mock draft, but the concept of a team trading back into the first round to take him and get the fifth-year option makes sense.
In mocks where I’ve had that happen, it’s often been teams drafting later than No. 24.
Simpson looked great to start the 2025 college football season but injuries, a lack of a running game, and not questionable stature should see him fall down the board.
Pick: Pass
Photo Credit: AP/Julio Cortez
