Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Preview, Picks, & Best Bets (3/5/26)
The Los Angeles Lakers (37-24) travel to face the Denver Nuggets (38-24) at 10 p.m. Eastern on Amazon Prime. There is nobody on the Lakers’ injury report, but the Nuggets will be without Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, and Spencer Jones. Offseason acquisition Cameron Johnson is also questionable to play.
Keep reading for Lakers vs. Nuggets best bets, and click any odds below to place a bet. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites. Also check out our daily NBA betting trends for data, odds and insights!
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Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds
Lakers vs. Nuggets Best Bets & Picks
The best bet in this matchup is taking the over on total points.
Over 240.5 Total Points (-110 DraftKings)
Los Angeles ranks 22nd in defensive rating and struggles mightily to protect the rim. Opponents are converting 71.7% of their restricted area shots, which is the third-highest percentage across the association per NBA.com.
Enter Nikola Jokić. He’s one of the best paint scorers in league history and routinely torches Deandre Ayton. For example, Jokić has averaged 29.3 points and 9.5 assists per 75 possessions on 70.2% true shooting across the 487 possessions that Ayton has guarded him since Oct. 2022. Jonas Valanciunas should also find success around the basket against Los Angeles.
Jamal Murray is having the best regular season of his career. He’s averaging 25.7 points per game on 48/42/87 shooting splits. The Lakers lack elite point-of-attack defenders, so Murray is well-positioned to feast (especially when receiving a screen from Jokić).
Meanwhile, Denver ranks 21st in defensive rating and surrenders the fourth-highest restricted area field goal percentage at 70.2%. Jokić’s rim protection and defensive effort have been especially concerning since he returned from his knee injury. It’s clear that the Nuggets will struggle to get stops until Gordon and Watson suit up. They are the backbone of Denver’s defense because of their size, athleticism and versatility.
There are numerous red flags about the Lakers’ roster, but Los Angeles can erupt on offense in any game thanks to Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James. Plus, Ayton is set up for a big night against Denver’s bigs.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Preview & Breakdown
It has been a rocky season for the Lakers, but they enter this potential first round preview on a three-game winning streak.
Los Angeles has shot 39.8% from deep since the All-Star break, including 44.9% from Dončić on 9.9 attempts per game. This is crucial in general because efficient perimeter shooting completely changes how defenses can defend Dončić and James. But it’s also key in this game against the Nuggets because they will trot out two centers at the same time and play zone defense for a decent amount of minutes.
Denver’s season has also been up and down. Injuries are mostly to blame, yet the clutch time numbers cannot be ignored. The Nuggets have scored 113.2 points per 100 possessions during these high leverage minutes, which is good but not great. They should be more productive with Jokić and Murray on the roster. However, the real problem is Denver surrendering a monstrous 125.9 points per 100 possessions in clutch time. Only the tanking Brooklyn Nets are worse. If this trend continues during the playoffs, then the Nuggets likely get knocked out before the NBA Finals.
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