Las Vegas Super Bowl Odds 2022
The Raiders made it to the playoffs fair and square. They beat the Chargers in a whirlwind regular season finale and edged them out of the playoffs. But I wouldn’t consider this to be a playoff-caliber team – not when the bar is set with teams like the Buccaneers and the Packers in the same race. Nonetheless, they proved all year long that they can win as the underdog, where they went 7-4 on the season. They are also 7-2 in one-score games and 5-1 in games decided by three points or fewer.
Las Vegas Raiders Odds
The Raiders have the Bengals as their first obstacle on their road to more possible upsets. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives them a 32.5% to make it to the divisional round, the third lowest of all playoff contenders. Unsurprisingly, the FPI gives the Raiders a 1.9% chance at seeing the Super Bowl and 0.5% chance of winning. Safe to say the odds aren’t in their favor.
Good news for Raiders fans, and perhaps the one advantage they have over the Bengals is that they have one person, defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, listed as just questionable for this week’s game. With Darren Waller back after his five-game absence, they have a full squad. If any team deserves to play at their full capacity, it’s this team, who has overcome just about all that there is to overcome to get to this point. Having Waller in the playoffs is big for this offense and takes the pressure off of Hunter Renfrow to do the heavy lifting when the running game can’t get going. They rank 29th in rush yards per game, led by Josh Jacobs who will have a difficult time in the wild card game as Cincinnati’s run defense is notoriously strong.
On paper, their defense definitely isn’t amazing, but it’s not terrible. What the paper doesn’t show is this team’s likelihood of giving up tons of yards on plays where the other team desperately needs them. This defense has a 72.4% fourth down conversion rate, the highest in the league by far and it doesn’t help that the first offense they face out of the gate in the playoffs has the third-highest fourth down conversion rate. It’s things like this that will prevent this team from advancing past the Bengals who are much more organized on both sides of the ball.
Last time these two teams faced off in week 11, Burrow and the Bengals took down Carr and the Raiders 32-13, holding them to 278 yards of total offense. The Raiders forfeited 77 yards in penalties, failed to convert on its first six third-down attempts, and went scoreless for three quarters. The bright spot was none other than Darren Waller, who caught for 42% of their total offense that game. They should feel good that they have him back, but it’s still a long shot that they overcome all of their downfalls and beat this Bengals team with Joe Burrow playing the way he has been.
Props to the Raiders for overcoming adversity and getting to this point – but this is likely where it ends.
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