What Is Expected Points Added (EPA)?

Expected Points Added (EPA), founded by Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl, calculates how a team’s expected points were adjusted on a particular sequence. The advanced metric is calculated by the expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play ⁠— juxtaposed to the conclusion.

Let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles begin from their 25-yard line. Their expected points would hover around 1.06.

If Jalen Hurts throws a 15-yard completion to wideout A.J. Brown on the first play, making it first-and-10 on their 40-yard line, their expected points are now 1.88. Therefore, the EPA of this individual play would be 0.82 (1.88 subtracted by 1.06).

What is EPA?

Below, we will explore the EPA further and examine the measurement’s deficiency, along with the best way to utilize it from the best betting sites.

Expanding Upon EPA’s “Weakness”

The main dispute against the metric is that it doesn’t account for turnovers and, sometimes, unforced variance.

Let’s say Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence mishandles a snap under center, leading to a turnover and a 50-yard return. The opposing defense will generate more EPA on that play than it would have via a two-yard fumble return. Is that justified?

Probably not, especially if you’re evaluating that unit on a single-game basis as it relates to its next opponent. Moreover, the fumble didn’t showcase the defense’s ability to manufacture a turnover.

Furthermore, the RBDSM model doesn’t adjust for the opponent. But that can theoretically help your process while tying it within your handicapping, as you’ll read below.

Applying EPA To NFL Betting Markets

Bettors may consider fading a team against the spread (ATS) if they perceive it’s outperforming its EPA. The Kansas City Chiefs were a prime example of this concept through the first eight games of the 2021 season.

During that stretch, the Chiefs allowed the league’s fourth-highest EPA per rush attempt and fifth-highest EPA per dropback, respectively. They went 2-6 ATS amid that stretch — in large part because their point spreads were somewhat inflated.

Nevertheless, Kansas City finished above league average in both categories in its final 12 matchups, amassing an 8-4 ATS record.

The reverse can be said if a team has underperformed, as it relates to EPA. Take the Baltimore Ravens. Their defense ranked No. 14 in EPA per play allowed in 2022. However, this rating doesn’t account for their drastic improvement after acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith — nor their plethora of injuries. Their 2023 AFC North odds, nearing the +220 range, were profitable.

These instances shouldn’t translate into blindly wagering on EPA regression — one way or another. Team-centric EPA could be justified in specific situations, but it’s worth exploring as you examine the state of the NFL betting market.

States With Legal NFL Betting

When the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May 2018, it permitted states to legalize sports gambling. Starting with New Jersey (the original plaintiff in the PASPA case), additional states quickly moved to legalize and help regulate the industry even further.

NFL betting, as well as wagering on other professional sports, still isn’t federally legal. But residents of the states below can place wagers at legal sportsbooks — either online or at brick-and-mortar locations:

• Arizona
• Arkansas
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Delaware
• Illinois
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Lousiana
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Montana
• Nevada
• New Hampshire
• New Jersey
• New Mexico
• New York
• North Carolina
• North Dakota
• Ohio
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Rhode Island
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Washington
• Washington D.C.
• West Virginia
• Wyoming

Most other U.S. states have introduced bills that would legalize sports gambling. Some states are far closer than others to inching closer toward legalization. Visit our state betting pages to get a look at the status in each state.