NBA Sixth Man Of The Year Odds 2023-24: Brogdon, Quickley, & Paul Odds
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The NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds have dropped for the upcoming 2023-24 season. Last year proved that these awards are anything but a lock, so take a look at the NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds below to see which appeals to you, as well as our expert analysis on preseason favorites and an updated award ladder.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds 2023-24
Find updated NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds in the table below. These odds will fluctuate a significant amount during the preseason and regular season, so be sure to check back in on them frequently.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: 6MOTY Ladder
Our NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds ladder will begin once the 2023-24 season starts in October. For now, we have listed out our Sixth Man of the Year favorites below, along with their odds and our team’s rationale behind the optimism. Check-in periodically throughout the season, as these rankings will change based on our opinions on every player’s performance.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: Preseason/Early Season Favorites
A slow start to Immanuel Quickley’s 2022-23 campaign was likely the reason that he fell just short of winning his first NBA Sixth Man of the Year award; however, he is in a terrific spot to win this season, and his NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds reflect that.
Quickley’s first 30 games last year were uninspiring, to say the least; his scoring was sporadic, and his field goal percentages were well-below average. Something changed for Quickley immediately after that, though. Perhaps, the game “slowed down” for him, or it could have just been the increase and overall consistency in his minutes and in his offensive role.
In the last 51 games of the regular season, Quickley posted roughly 18 points, four rebounds, and four assists on a 47/40/81 shooting split. If it weren’t for Malcolm Brogdon’s outrageous efficiency off the bench for the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics, Quickley would have been a lock to win.
Regardless, Quickley enters his fourth NBA season with a solidified offensive role for the New York Knicks, and we still likely have not seen his best play yet, as he is only 24 years old. There’s a reason why he is one of the NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds favorites. House of Highlights has you covered with his 38-point explosion against the C’s below!
There is no guarantee that Benn Mathurin will start for the Indiana Pacers in his second NBA season, even though his rookie campaign was quite successful. Mathurin finished with close to 17 points, four rebounds, and two assists in just shy of 29 minutes per game.
While he lacked the kind of efficiency that bettors want to see in Sixth Man of the Year candidates, he proved that he could get to the line at a high level, which will prove to be extremely valuable.
Additionally, Mathurin’s shooting mechanics are solid, so he indeed projects to become a more accurate shooter as time goes on in his career.
Indiana head coach Rick Carlisle is fully capable of keeping Mathurin as the Pacers’ sixth man; if it works, why fix it? As the Pacers seem more and more unlikely to move on from Buddy Hield, they could roll out a lineup of Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin (or Jarace Walker), and Myles Turner. They could even opt to occasionally start combo guard Andrew Nembhard instead of Hield or Brown.
If that is indeed the case, Mathurin is incredibly well-positioned for a 6MOY campaign, and his NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds would then hold a substantial value. There have only been five Sixth Man winners that have averaged 20 or more points per game, and if Mathurin logs a few more minutes and improves his shooting efficiency, he could absolutely become the sixth. How fitting that would be.
Luke’s NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds are understandably long; it is uncertain whether he will have enough volume and usage offensively to compete with some of these other candidates, who will likely be featured pieces of their respective team’s offense.
Still, Kennard is an intriguing dark horse for Sixth Man of the Year after shooting roughly 53% from the field and 54% from three in his 24 games played for the Memphis Grizzlies last season. Clearly, Luke is an ideal fit for a team that desperately needs three-point shooting. During that span, Kennard posted just shy of 12 points per game and proved how immensely valuable he is to the Grizzlies.
Further, Kennard is bound to see more minutes this season; his role within the Grizzlies’ offense should continue to evolve and increase, especially with the absence of Ja Morant for the team’s first 25 games. Additionally, the Grizzlies don’t have a true starting-caliber small forward this season, so he will be deployed more frequently, particularly in Morant-Kennard-Bane lineups, which have already had a lot of unforgettable moments offensively.
Building off that point, Dillon Brooks is no longer of the Grizzlies, which gives Kennard more floor time and a potentially substantial increase in field goal attempts per game. Brooks shot nearly 14 times per game, and those will be re-routed to more efficient players like Bane, Jackson, and Kennard.
Kennard could potentially steal the award away from other NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds favorites if he posts 15-16 points per game on the outrageous efficiency he displayed last season. Improvements in playmaking (assists) and rebounding can make this long shot a reality.
Jaden Hardy (6MOTY & MIP)
This future bet is so crazy that there are not even odds for it yet. Head over to a sportsbook that might give you NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds for Hardy, or keep your eye on them so you can jump on this future when it eventually drops, because it will.
Sure, this is a complete longshot and you should not put any more than a couple tenths of a unit down on it; however, regardless of what his implied odds to win this award end up being, they will still be too low.
In his rookie season, Hardy flashed signs of brilliance on the offensive end of the floor, averaging nine points on 44% shooting from the field and just shy of 41% from three. Those are percentages that we can get behind, especially if his volume increases in year two.
In five games as a starter, Hardy averaged 21.2 points, five rebounds, and 3.2 assists in just over 32 minutes per game. Hardy’s efficiency tumbled a bit in those games, but that is to be expected for a rookie that is being heavily leaned on for offensive output.
Hardy likely has the backup point guard spot locked up, so his minutes should increase substantially. Seth Curry is the only player he has to worry about stealing some of his off-the-ball minutes, but Curry has struggled to stay healthy in two of his past three seasons.
Here is Hardy’s potential downfall with this award: defense. Hardy’s 118.0 defensive rating on a team that already struggles on that end of the floor could limit his floor time. However, if he can clean it up on that end of the floor a bit, his averages should skyrocket from last season to this season.
A news article came out on September 10, 2023 (via NBC Sports) that Chris Paul would be starting for the Golden State Warriors this upcoming season, which will likely make him ineligible for the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award. To be eligible for the 6MOTY award, a player must come off the bench more than they start in a single season; Paul’s +1600 odds then give him an implied probability of 5.88% to win the award.
Paul has always started in his career, so why would he be a contender for the award? For one, Paul’s age and injury history could warrant fewer minutes this season, especially since he is 38 years old now. While Paul’s initial role might be as a starter, if things don’t go as well as hoped, head coach Steve Kerr might want to change things up.
This could happen sooner versus later, as last season’s starting lineup of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney boasted an incredible +21.9 net rating per NBA.com. Why would Golden State change that?
If this were to happen, and Paul accepted a sixth man role, the narrative would be heavily in his favor, similarly to Russell Westbrook before he was moved from the Lakers to the Jazz (and eventually signing with the Clippers) at the trade deadline. Had Westbrook stayed with the Lakers, he would have had a strong shot to win the 6MOTY award.
Further, if Paul’s arrival proves to be just what the Warriors needed, and they drastically improve their road performance, and, thus, record, his NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds will tighten drastically.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: Players To Avoid
Why in the world does Jordan Poole have the seventh-best NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds on DraftKings? This makes no sense, even to the casual fan. Poole will not only start in every single game that he is available in, but he will also likely be the team leader in field goals attempted per game; Washington is going to rely heavily on his scoring prowess to keep it competitive in a down year.
Since Poole was an NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds favorite for a large portion of the 2022-23 regular season, this is clearly an attempt to take advantage of that fact and try to entice casual fans to throw down a few bucks on him. Downright nonsense.
The Warriors may have had the luxury to bring Poole off the bench to support that second unit, as it only made sense for Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins to start in that Dubs’ backcourt; however, that same luxury does not belong to the Washington Wizards, a team that just shipped off two of their top three players this off-season.
If your contention is that Poole will flourish in an expanded role with the Wizards, especially since he is out of what seemed a toxic environment, you are much better off throwing down some money on Jordan Poole’s NBA Most Improved Player odds; he is going to start at shooting guard for this Wizards squad, which will make him ineligible for this award.
This hurts us to write, as the Lineups team is amongst Bobby Portis’s biggest fans. Fading Bobby’s NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds has a lot less to do with his capabilities, particularly on the glass and offensive end, and a whole lot more to do with the fact that this award has been allergic to big men for over a decade. As a matter of fact, in the past 12 NBA regular seasons, only one big man has won the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award: Montrezl Harrell in the 2019-20 season.
Portis finished last season with an impressive stat line for a Milwaukee team that finished as the best regular season team in the league; he averaged roughly 14 points and ten rebounds on 50% from the field and 37% shooting from behind the arc. Any player averaging close to a double-double off the bench deserves serious consideration for the 6MOTY award.
However, Portis always seemed to be one or two steps behind the NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds leaders throughout the season. Players like Immanuel Quickley, Jordan Poole, Russell Westbrook, Tyrese Maxey, and Malcolm Brogdon all had tighter odds at some point in the season.
Portis will be fighting an uphill battle to win the 6MOTY award since award voters have been reluctant to vote for power forwards or centers in recent years. Further, it is challenging to imagine Portis putting up significantly better numbers than either of the past two seasons; his role is solidified, and there’s hardly a narrative that could propel him above a breakout candidate.
Does anyone want to take a guess as to how many games Russell Westbrook has come off the bench for the Los Angeles Clippers since joining the team? Anyone? The answer is zero. And there is no evidence that will change, as head coach Ty Lue has expressed time and time again how important Westbrook is to the Clippers.
For a player to be eligible for the Sixth Man of the Year award, he has to come off the bench in more games than he starts. Don’t expect that to be the case this season for Westbrook, despite the fact he has struggled shooting at times. There are plenty of things he does at a high level that warrant him being on the floor for 30+ minutes per game.
The only way that this bet holds any value at all is if James Harden is moved to the Clippers and Westbrook adopts the sixth-man role that he was forced into for the Lakers. Still, it is a long shot that Harden would end up a Clipper and that Lue would immediately move Westbrook to the bench. Even in that case, there are no guarantees that Westbrook and the Clippers would have enough combined success to warrant handing him the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award.
Despite being a 6MOY frontrunner for a portion of last season, we can’t expect that to carry over here. Westbrook’s situation, at least to some degree, is similar to Jordan Poole’s in Washington: These players are starters, and the likelihood that they would even qualify for this award is slim to none.
Talent-wise, Malik Monk is more than capable of winning the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award; however, the opportunity just does not seem to be there for him. Despite being a microwave scorer that is capable of posting 25-30 points on any given night, Monk doesn’t get nearly enough tick to justify taking a swing here.
Last season, in his first go-round for the Sacramento Kings, Monk averaged 13.5 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.6 rebounds per game on a fairly efficient 44.8% shooting from the field. These numbers are not quite good enough to win the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award, but they are not that far off. But why would we be bearish on Monk’s NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds based off those averages?
It is not his per-game averages that concern us; it is the amount of playing time he gets every night. During the 2022-23 season, Monk merely averaged 22 minutes per game, which is far fewer than other 6MOTY candidates like Malcolm Brogdon (26 mpg, and will play even more this season), Immanuel Quickley (29 mpg), Bobby Portis (26 mpg), Benn Mathurin (29 mpg), and many others!
While Monk will have plenty of eye-popping games this upcoming season, the inconsistency in minutes will ultimately deter us from pulling the trigger on his NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds. If he logs 4-6 more minutes per game through the first month or so, we will certainly revisit this. Again, the talent level is absolutely there.
Even at +3000, it makes no sense to bet on Austin Reaves’ NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds; he simply will not be coming off the bench for the Los Angeles Lakers. After a heroic postseason where he was at times the best player on the floor for the “Lake Show,” Reaves has cemented his status as the starting two-guard. To reiterate the point, he will not be coming off of the bench.
In the 2022-23 playoffs, Reaves posted close to 17 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game on an astounding 46/44/90 split; he was the third-leading scorer for Los Angeles while having the most efficient shooting numbers.
Reaves has further proved himself as a key contributor for the USA (a team that features several All-Stars and All-Star-caliber players) during the FIBA World Cup; he has already put together four double-digit scoring outings.
For Reaves to be relegated to the bench, the Lakers would effectively have to trade for a better shooting guard (they can’t afford one), or he would have to enter an impossibly bad shooting slump, neither of which makes much sense. The Lakers have re-signed all of the players they wanted to keep and even brought in a few extra guys on team-friendly contracts this off-season; their roster is all set and should remain largely unchanged, even through the trade deadline.
As for Reaves entering a shooting slump, don’t count on it. Reaves thrived under pressure during the 2023 Playoffs despite having no prior experience; he should be able to shake off any nerves that come with shooting woes. Additionally, his mechanics are bordering on elite, as evidenced by his 44% shooting from deep in the postseason on a sizable volume. There are much better long-shot bets to take than this one.
Betting on individual player award futures is an extremely speculative wager; it becomes even more speculative when a player’s circumstances are uncertain, to say the least. That is precisely the case with Caleb Martin, as the Miami Heat are likely to continue trying to trade for All-Star Damian Lillard. Will Martin be involved in the trade? If so, will he be moved to Portland or to a different team in a three or four-way trade? If he is moved to a different team, will he come off the bench for them, or will he start?
Martin’s NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds are at +2200 on DraftKings as of mid-September, and his favorable odds can mostly be attributed to an impressive playoff run with the Miami Heat. As a matter of fact, Martin only posted 9.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game during the regular season.
However, those numbers rose in the postseason, as he averaged 12.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists on an efficient 53/42/83 shooting split. Further, Martin had a 12-game stretch during the playoffs where he scored 16 points and pulled down six boards per game.
Still, Martin winning the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award seems like a long shot due to his uncertain situation with the Damian Lillard trade looming, and the mere fact that his playoff output is unlikely to translate to the regular season; he won’t see as many minutes or as many shots.
Additionally, there is the slight chance that Martin is not included in the Lillard deal but Herro still is, which could thrust Martin into the starting shooting guard role. There is no guarantee that Josh Richardson would start over Martin in that instance.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: Odds Changes Explained
NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds are ever-changing, beginning in the preseason until the award winner is announced during the NBA Playoffs. Usually, you can get favorable odds in the preseason, and the reasoning should be simple: different catalysts can quickly alter the outlook of a future bet, such as the Sixth Man of the Year award. For example, injuries, locker room tension, cold streaks, a trade, or a change in coaching staff can all impact a player’s odds of winning the award.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: Futures Bettors
The Sixth Man of the Year award is another future bet that is highly speculative; there are not many back-to-back winners of this award in league history. Only three players have won the award in consecutive years: Kevin McHale, Lou Williams, and Detlef Schrempf. NBA futures bettors understand the likelihood of a player winning consecutive Sixth Man of the Year awards is slim and will bet accordingly.
Additionally, these futures bettors can notice and acknowledge essential trends. For instance, guards have won the award in 11 of the past 12 seasons. The only non-guard who won the Sixth Man of the Year award during that stretch was Montrezl Harrell. Another important consideration is that centers do not receive this award; Bill Walton and Roy Tarpley were the only ones to win. Power forwards not named Kevin McHale have not fared much better.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: Conclusion
As we saw in the 2o22-23 regular season, the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award is far from a guarantee. Few expected that there would be that much volatility around the award, as many players frequently shifted roles; Tyrese Maxey, Russell Westbrook, and Jordan Poole, all favorites at one time, played different roles throughout the campaign.
Like other individual awards, the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award is voter-based, which means there is some level of subjectivity involved, too. NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds fluctuate throughout the season, so check back in often to see what has changed.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds FAQ
What is a “Sixth Man?”
A “Sixth Man” is a player for an NBA team that comes off the bench. These players are often scorers on the offensive end but have a deficiency that can keep them out of the starting lineup (i.e., defense, rebounding, size.) However, sometimes, a bench unit just needs a great scorer.
How are the NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds calculated?
NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds are often more straightforward than other awards; statistics are usually the most important. The narrative is less important in this award, as expectations aren’t for this player to lead your team to the playoffs or best conference record necessarily.
Who won the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award last season?
Malcolm Brogdon was the winner last season and came into this year with the best NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds. However, the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award is not an easy one to win more than once.
What player has the most Sixth Man of the Year awards?
Two of the greatest volume scorers off the bench in recent history, Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford, are the only players to win the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award three times. Williams and Crawford lacked size and defense, respectively, so they came off the bench for teams and provided elite scoring.
Which player has the best NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds in 2023-24?
Immanuel Quickley and Malcolm Brogdon have the best preseason NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds heading into the 2023-24 campaign; however, these could change in an instant, as injuries happen and situations change. Further, there are plenty of capable candidates this season who could overthrow them.
