Oakland Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals (11/17/2019): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 5-6
All Time Results: 69-61-1, +10.23 Units

Oakland Raiders -11 vs. Cincinnati Bengals – 1 Unit

I misquoted The Autumn Wind yesterday in the write-up for my Teaser of the Millenium.  Let me take a moment to get this excellent token of Americana right:

The Autumn Wind is a raider,
Pillaging just for fun…

Jon Gruden will relish every second of the three-hour beat down his team are going to hand the Bengals this Sunday.  Cincinnati is the worst team in the league – and is getting worse!  Switching from a competent Andy Dalton to unproven and Un-pedigreed Ryan Findley at this point in the season offers no juice in the building. AJ Green put his toe in the water and decided – smartly, I think – against taking a dip.

Oakland, on the other hand, is riding its first winning streak in years and has gotten better each week.

Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 Rushing Yards – .25 Units

The Bengals have the worst rush defense this year, and this decade.  The Bengals allow a staggering 173 yards per game on the ground.  While a Blue-Chip winner might rest a young-stud like Jacobs in a game where they are favored by 10 points, a lot my handicap revolves around the Raiders having the exact opposite reaction.  Oakland wants to flex muscles right now – while they are still “Oakland”.  Nobody expected them to be here at this point – and they appear charged to make a statement to their fans across the country.  The Silver & Black is back.

Jacobs is young enough to still enjoy his first NFL lay-up.  Jacobs has averaged 95.6 yards in the Raiders 5 wins this season, none of which came against a bottom 5 rush defense.  I don’t see him taking it easy.  I expect him to post his career-high on Sunday.

The Bengals will be beat-up & deflated. Teams in their next game after facing the Baltimore Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS this year.  Why? Because of the Ravens’ Smashmouth playbook presents the best & most distinct rushing attack in years.  They are leaving teams bloodied and toothless in their wake.  Nobody got punched in the mouth harder by the Ravens than these Bengals last week.  My money says they still feel the effects.

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Oakland Raiders -20.5 (+255) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – .1 Units

With an offensive line lead by the consummate Villian, Richie Incognito, I think the Raiders storm the Bengals on the ground this Sunday like they did back in the 1970s.  Derek Carr has been elite at getting rid of the ball quickly, using screens and slants as compliments to their strong running attack.  This game is traditional West Coast Football meets Dead Cat not particularly interested in bouncing.

What did the Bengals do after giving up 5 touchdowns on the Ravens first 5 possesions last week? They ran the ball some more.  Bengals RB, Joe Mixon ended the game with over 30 carries.  Whatever the coaches’ motivation, they weren’t interested in putting points on the board.  They either wanted Mixon to get some numbers so people could be excited about him next year.  Or they just wanted the clock to keep running so the game could be over sooner.  Or both.

The Raiders keep their foot on the gas the entire game, and the Bengals may never get out of first gear.  We have seen this total go up over the course of the week.  I get a feeling the Bengals won’t be contributing much to the score.

Prediction: Oakland 42, Cincinnati 10

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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