Should You Bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Years of playoff disappointments leave the Cleveland Cavaliers on the brink of an existential crisis and the franchise essentially went all-in for this NBA playoffs run by trading a much younger Darius Garland for veteran guard James Harden. Adding Harden and his uninspiring history in late-series playoff games might add more skepticism to the Cavs chances to win the Eastern Conference and the NBA Finals, yet some sportsbooks installed them as the favorites after the trade in early February.
Cleveland has since been passed by the Boston Celtics in terms of shortest odds to win the East, but the Cavs are holding strong in second position at +320 to win the conference.
The Cavs were a regular season juggernaut last year under new coach Kenny Atkinson and they’ve just started to peak on offense with Max Strus and Jarrett Allen both active in spots to gain chemistry alongside Harden. Donovan Mitchell is a proven All-NBA performer and playoff killer and Evan Mobley is capable of making a leap and dominating in certain matchups.
When it comes to handicapping the Eastern Conference, are the Cavs a sleeper hiding in plain sight?
Cleveland Cavaliers to Win Eastern Conference?
Over the last few weeks of the season, the Cavs seemed to strategize to stick in the No. 4 spot in the standings so they could potentially avoid a second-round series with the Celtics. They routinely rested Jarrett Allen and Jaylon Tyson, but still went 11-3 down the stretch.
Landing in fourth gives the Cavs home court in a first-round matchup with the red-hot Atlanta Hawks. While the Hawks have given Cleveland’s defense some issues, Atlanta’s smaller frontcourt clearly has no answers for Mobley and Allen with Harden and Mitchell feeding them the ball.
The Cavs could get past Atlanta and face off with the top-seeded Detroit Pistons, a physical but unproven young team. Cleveland rolled Detroit in the first meeting this year, then lost a pair of close games. The Pistons might be favored in that series and would have the extra motivation of knowing Cleveland intentionally ducked Boston to face them. Yet we would still favor the Cavs.
According to projections at Basketball-Reference.com, the Cavs have a 6.7% chance to win the Eastern Conference, which would likely require a conference finals win over the Celtics or New York Knicks. Cleveland is just 1-5 against those teams this season and just 27-24 against teams with winning records overall.
It’s also troubling to note the Cavs are 2-8 in games decided by one possession or in overtime. However, they’re a top five team in terms of net rating and defensive rating in clutch games (the final 5 minutes of games within 5 points).
It would take a major leap of faith to back the Cavs to beat the other Eastern Conference contenders this year and their odds are a bit too short to warrant a futures bet.
Best Odds: Cleveland Cavaliers to win Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers to Win NBA Finals?
Projections at Basketball-Reference and ESPN give the Cavs about a 1.5% chance to navigate the East and then win the NBA championship this June.
Cleveland has the size and length to match up with the Denver Nuggets or San Antonio Spurs if either of those teams win the West, yet they’re a terrible matchup for the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder and the Thunder remain the prohibitive favorites with a 63.4% chance to win the West per Basketball-Reference. The Cavs lost by 32 and 8 points in their two matchups with the Thunder this season.
We should once again bring up James Harden’s track record in the playoffs. While his averages (22.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 6.5 APG) look solid, most of that production has come in the first four games of any playoff series. Harden has posted some notable duds in Game 6 and Game 7 when his team had their season on the line and it’s been 8 years since he was last in the Conference Finals with Houston. To be fair, he was injured in 2021 when his Brooklyn Nets fell in 7 games to the Milwaukee Bucks.
Other than Strus and Mitchell, the Cavs don’t have anyone that has consistently stepped up in the playoffs. Allen and Mobley have been bullied by more physical teams in recent years and neither has had a great season in terms of consistency. With those concerns, it doesn’t make sense to back the Cavs at 12/1 to win the NBA championship.
Best Odds: Cleveland Cavaliers to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Sue Ogrocki
