Should You Bet on the Los Angeles Lakers to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
A couple weeks ago, when the Lakers were one of the hottest teams in the NBA and Luka Doncic looked completely unstoppable, the Purple and Gold might have stood out as a great long shot to back ahead of the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
All that changed with Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) in danger of missing multiple rounds of playoff action given the concerning time table on their respective injuries.
While they’ve locked up the Pacific Division and could finish in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th spot in the Western Conference, the Lakers are easily the weakest link in a loaded playoff field if they will be missing both of those star guards in a potential first-round matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves or Houston Rockets.
Are there any betting opportunities for the Los Angeles Lakers winning the West or the NBA Finals this year?
Los Angeles Lakers to Win Western Conference?
Projections adjusted quickly when Doncic suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain in a blowout loss to the Thunder April 3, shifting the Lakers from one of the top four candidates to win the West, to a long shot with a 0.2% chance to win the conference per ESPN’s Power Index. Projections at Basketball-Reference.com give the Lakers a 0.5% chance to win the conference.
Only the Portland Trailblazers (7500/1) have longer odds than the Lakers (2500/1) to win the West. Doncic traveled to Europe for an injection that could potentially heal his hamstring quicker, and there is no official time table regarding his return. Both Doncic and Reaves have Grade 2 injuries that typically take 4-6 weeks for full recovery.
Beyond those guards, the Lakers can turn to 41-year-old LeBron James and a cast of role players. With the 11th-worst defensive rating (116) in the NBA this season, the Lakers simply aren’t built to win without elite offensive guards.
Head coach J.J. Redick has done an excellent job scheming creative defenses to protect Doncic and Reaves on the defensive end, and the Lakers had a top-3 offensive rating over the final three weeks before their injuries. Unfortunately, it looks like they will not be back to full speed until next season.
Best Odds: Los Angeles Lakers to win Western Conference
Los Angeles Lakers to Win NBA Finals?
The Lakers aren’t worth backing to win the NBA Finals. They will likely be sizable underdogs in the first round of the playoffs whether they get home court advantage or not in a potential 4-5 matchup with the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets are more physical, athletic, and quicker than the sum of the Lakers roster and would be a nightmare matchup for Doncic or Reaves if they’re not fully healthy. If the Lakers get past the Rockets, they would likely get the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in the next round. The Thunder just demolished the Lakers in consecutive matchups and would do the same in a series if Doncic can’t play at an All-NBA level.
It’s possible the Lakers hold onto the No. 3 seed and get the Wolves in the first round. While they lost, 4-1, to the Wolves in the conference semifinals last season, the Lakers might have a better chance to hang with Minnesota given the Wolves injury concerns and inconsistencies on both ends of the floor this season. But they would be doubtful to beat Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in the conference semifinals if they manage to win a series.
While the returns could be massive on the Lakers at 6000/1 to win the title, the odds of this team reaching the conference finals are very slim.
Best Odds: Los Angeles Lakers to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/LM Otero
