Should You Bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
With consecutive Western Conference Finals trips under their belts, the Minnesota Timberwolves are no strangers to postseason battles.
The Wolves entered the 2025-26 preseason with +1300 odds to win the NBA title and those odds quickly lengthened to +3000 early in the season due to injuries and inconsistent play. Minnesota is now getting odds as long as +5000 to win the title as the Wolves battle to stay out of the play-in tournament this April.
Anthony Edwards is in the running for best two-way players in the NBA, Jaden McDaniels has made a huge leap on the offensive end, and Julius Randle has flashed potential in the playoffs before, so why is this team being overlooked as a true title contender?
Minnesota Timberwolves to Win Western Conference?
In the past two playoffs, the Wolves have looked like world beaters in their first-round matchups, then battled to win another series before flaming out in the Western Conference Finals. Could this be the year they break through?
This season has been marred by inconsistency and regression on the defensive end. The Wolves rank fifth in defensive rating, but have lapsed for long periods in terms of their 3-point defense and rim protection. Minnesota is dead even (22-22) against teams with winning records due to that inconsistency.
As of April 4, the Wolves are expected to remain in the sixth spot in the West with a 23.7% chance to move up to the fifth spot per the Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probabilities page. Landed the sixth seed would likely earn a rematch with a Los Angeles Lakers squad that they embarrassed in a 4-1 series win last April. Moving up to fifth could generate a first-round showdown with their rival, the Denver Nuggets, who beat Minnesota, 4-1, in 2022-23 but lost a 7-game series to the Wolves in the WCF Semifinals the next year.
Winning a first-round series would almost certainly set up a second-round matchup with the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder or the mighty San Antonio Spurs. Per Basketball-Reference, the Wolves have a 2.5% chance to upset one of those top seeds, win the conference finals, and reach the NBA Finals. The ESPN Power Index projects a measly 0.8% chance that Minnesota reaches the NBA Finals.
That being said, Minnesota is one of the more dangerous low seeds in the Western Conference due to their playoff experience and physical style. The Wolves are 2-1 against the Spurs this season and 3-2 over their last five regular season matchups against the Thunder.
Betting the Wolves at +2200 to win the Western Conference is worth a very small wager if you think this team has yet to peak, but is primed to make some noise in the playoffs again.
Best Odds: Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference
Minnesota Timberwolves to Win NBA Finals?
If they can take down the top teams in the Western Conference, could the Wolves win the NBA championship?
Minnesota has the lowest probability (0.1%) of any team in playoff contention to do so per the ESPN Power Index. Basketball-Reference gives them a slightly better shot with 0.9% odds.
If you want to take a swing on everything falling into place for Minnesota in the playoffs, it could be worth doubling down on a very, very small wager with +5000 odds to win a title.
The Wolves beat the Boston Celtics – the Eastern Conference favorites – in Boston in March and split their matchups with the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers this season.
Minnesota ranks fourth in 3-point defense and third in opponent’s shooting percentage (60.8%) inside of 5 feet with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint. The Wolves are second in fourth-quarter PPG (29.2), but have been inconsistent in close games.
Consider this team as a true longshot to navigate the gauntlet in the Western Conference, but if you like their chances in a particular matchup, you might be best off backing them against the spread as underdogs.
Best Odds: Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Godofredo A. Vásquez
