Should You Bet on the Toronto Raptors to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Under first-year Serbian coach Darko Rajakovic, the Toronto Raptors have been on a bit of a rollercoaster this season. Toronto entered the preseason with +10000 odds to win the NBA title and a projected win total of 39.5 wins.
The Raptors cruised past that win total and are fighting for the 5th, 6th, or 7th seed in the Eastern Conference. Toronto ranks seventh in defensive rating and 17th in offensive rating. The Raptors have handled business with a 22-8 record against teams below .500 and are 20-28 against teams with winning records.
With a great defense and creative offensive scheme bolstered by depth across the board, should you bet on the Toronto Raptors to make a run in the NBA playoffs?
Toronto Raptors to Win Eastern Conference?
Toronto actually has the longest odds (+7000) to win the Eastern Conference of the 10 teams in the playoff picture, trailing way behind the surging Charlotte Hornets (+1900) and Atlanta Hawks (+4000). The Hawks are implied to hang onto the 5th seed in the East and the Philadelphia 76ers (+2000) are tied with Toronto in the battle to grab the No. 6 spot and avoid the play-in tournament.
If they wind up in the play-in tournament at the No. 7 spot, the Raptors have a good chance to advance considering no team has failed to do so in the six-year history of the format. The Raptors are 2-0 this season against the Miami Heat and have a combined 3-3 record against Orlando and Charlotte.
While they could have home court in the play-in tournament, the Raptors would likely be facing the Boston Celtics in the first round if they come out as the No. 7 seed. Boston (+185) is the odds-on favorite to win the East with Jayson Tatum back to form and Joe Mazzulla looking like the top candidate for Coach of the Year. Boston is 3-0 this season vs. Toronto with a +11.5 net rating.
In order to advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Raptors likely have to grab the No. 6 seed and earn a first-round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers or New York Knicks, two teams that have been far less consistent than Boston this season. Toronto has a 43% chance to finish sixth per the Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probabilities page and an 11.5% chance to finish seventh.
If you think they can finish ahead of the 76ers for sixth, they could be worth a long shot bet at +500 to win a playoff series.
Best Odds: Toronto to win Eastern Conference
Toronto Raptors to Win NBA Finals?
Kawhi Leonard delivered the Raptors their sole title in the 2018-19 season and they swept the Nets in the first round the following year before losing in 7 to the Boston. The Raptors returned to the playoffs in 2021-22 and lost in 6 to Philadelphia.
After a three-year hiatus from playoff contention, does this version of the Raptors have what it takes to make a run?
Toronto shares the ball in Rajakovic’s system with the second-best assist to turnover ratio in the NBA. The Raptors force the fourth-most turnovers per play (14.4%) and rank second in fastbreak PPG while limiting the opposition’s transition opportunities, but there are more red flags about their playoff potential.
The Raptors are not efficient in the halfcourt and lack shooters to space the floor. They rank 26th in PPG in the fourth quarter and have a relatively high foul rate.
This team is ahead of schedule under a new coach with some promising young pieces around resurgent veteran Brandon Ingram, but betting on the Raptors to win the Finals, or even the Eastern Conference, is not advisable.
Best Odds: Toronto to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Mark J. Terrill
