San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets Preview, Picks, & Best Bets (4/4/26)
The San Antonio Spurs (59-18) travel to face the Denver Nuggets (49-28) at 3 p.m. Eastern on Amazon Prime. A Spurs win would give the franchise its first 60-win season since 2017. Can San Antonio get the job done against a Denver squad that is without Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones, and Zeke Nnaji?
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Spurs vs. Nuggets Odds
Spurs vs. Nuggets Best Bets & Picks
The best bet in this matchup is taking San Antonio to cover the spread.
San Antonio Spurs -2 (-108 FanDuel)
Since the All-Star break, opponents have made 61.4% of their paint shots against Denver’s defense, per NBA.com. That’s the fourth-highest percentage across the league during this stretch. Nikola Jokić and Jonas Valanciunas are poor rim protectors, and the Nuggets’ guards struggle to consistently contain and steer ball handlers. This bodes well for a Spurs squad that features Victor Wembanyama and a slew of athletic, physical guards who thrive at getting downhill. They should feast inside the paint.
Meanwhile, 12.2% of field goal attempts against the Nuggets’ defense post-break have come from the corners, which is the ninth-highest rate. It’s a consequence of Denver being unable to prevent paint touches. San Antonio leads the NBA in corner attempts per game and knocks them down efficiently, so it’s yet another red flag for Denver.
On the other end, Wembanyama and Stephon Castle are superb defensive players who can bother Jokić and Jamal Murray. It will also be difficult for Aaron Gordon to impose his will against San Antonio’s frontcourt.
Overall, San Antonio’s athleticism and offensive strengths are significant obstacles for Denver. Peyton Watson’s length, athleticism, and shooting will be sorely missed in this matchup.
Spurs vs. Nuggets Preview & Breakdown
The Spurs own a 27-2 record since Feb. 1 and rank first in offensive rating and second in defensive rating during this span. They are still two losses behind Oklahoma City, but finishing with the two seed may be a blessing in disguise because it likely means Denver is on the other side of the bracket. Avoiding Nikola Jokić is ideal, and the Nuggets are one of the few teams with a chance to eliminate the Thunder.
In the meantime, which awards can San Antonio claim? Victor Wembanyama will win Defensive Player of the Year assuming he qualifies by playing in four of the Spurs’ final five games, but the MVP ship has sailed – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds are currently around -1600 to -2000 to win MVP after the Thunder embarrassed the Lakers. On the bright side, Keldon Johnson is the favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year, and Mitch Johnson has an outside chance at Coach of the Year.
Denver is coming off a win against Utah, but Peyton Watson exited the contest early with a hamstring strain and is considered “week to week” according to Nuggets head coach David Adelman. It will be a crushing blow if Watson does not return to full strength before the playoffs because Denver needs his defense, athleticism and scoring.
The Nuggets will probably finish with the fourth seed, but a win against San Antonio would give Denver a fighting chance at the three seed. This is important because it allows Jokić and company to avoid Oklahoma City until the Conference Finals. But prevailing against a red-hot Spurs squad will be an uphill climb, especially without Watson.
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