Top Eligible NBA Most Improved Player of the Year Contenders & Longshots

By Kody Malstrom | Apr 13, 2026, 10:27am

It’s almost time for voters to decide on the awards for the 2025-26 NBA season and one of the most intriguing categories is the Most Improved Player of the Year.

While it’s been around since the 1985-86 season, the MIP has given rise to debate over the past decade.

Should it be an unknown jumping to starter production? Or a bench player becoming a star, or a star becoming a superstar?

Just two years after being selected No. 2 overall, Ja Morant won the award in 2021-22. That created some blowback and the past three winners (Lauri Markkanen, Tyrese Maxey, and Dyson Daniels) have followed the previous formula of a young, and relatively unproven, player thriving after getting increased opportunity due to trade or other factors.

Like with NBA MVP and other awards, the Most Improved Player must log at least 20 minutes in 65 games to be eligible for consideration.

Let’s take a look at the updated NBA Most Improved Player odds market and discuss the top candidates with a look at a couple longshots.

2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player Odds

NBA Most Improved Player Candidates

At the end of March, Detroit’s Jalen Duren is leading the race. Duren opened the season around +8000 to win the award and dipped to the favorite one month later with +180 odds after Detroit’s red-hot start. His odds jumped back to +2000 by the end of January after an uninspiring stretch of play, but he’s been the favorite since early March.

Atlanta’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker went from a longshot at +5000 to +1500 in January with Trae Young out of the picture, and was still listed at +2000 at some books to start March, but red-hot play has shifted the guard to the second favorite at most books ahead of teammate Jalen Johnson, who has dipped from among the top contenders at +300 to +3000 over the past couple weeks.

In early February, Portland’s Deni Avdija became the favorite with -120 odds, then he missed time with a lingering back injury and appeared in just four games before returning to action March 8. With the Blazers bound for a play-in spot in the Western Conference and Avdija playing consistently again, his odds are down to +600 in third position.

Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons

First some context to consider. Since Cade Cunningham (lung) is likely to miss the rest of the regular season and fall short of 65 games, he will be ineligible for All-NBA and MVP consideration. Voters may take that into account by rewarding the Pistons with another award if they finish atop the Eastern Conference, especially if Duren leads the charge. Note that Cunningham finished third in MIP voting last year.

The 6-foot-10, 250-pound bruiser has been an elite rebounder since he entered the league, but his scoring has really jumped from 11.8 to 19.3 PPG this season without any dip in efficiency. In nine games without Cunningham this year, he’s stepped up with averages of 22.3 PPG, 12.1 RPG, and 3 APG to keep Detroit afloat. Duren is also sixth in Player Efficiency Rating and third in Win Shares behind perennial MVP candidates Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic.

Duren has missed 10 games this season and has dealt with lingering ankle and knee injuries, but is almost certain to surpass 65 games played next week.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks

Alexander-Walker has built his case for MIP similar to how Lauri Markkanen and Dyson Daniels did in two of the past three seasons. The Timberwolves didn’t want to extend his contract and the Hawks signed him as a well-regarded “3 and D” wing, but he’s blossomed into an offensive star in his new role.

The cousin of reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 20.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 1.3 steals while shooting nearly 40% from deep. He hit a career-high 41 points with nine 3-pointers in a March 16 win over Orlando with major playoff implications. “NAW” is on an insane run this month with a 138 offensive rating, shooting 47% from deep and scoring 23.1 PPG while leading Atlanta out of the play-in and into the No. 6 seed for now.

Is that because his teammate, Jalen Johnson, has been among the favorites for most of the past few months? And because Dyson Daniels earned the award while playing for the Hawks last season? At some point, his insane production on the court has shifted the market despite concerns about the voters considering those narratives.

Deni Avdija, Portland Trailblazers

After surging in his first season with Portland, Avdija received seven votes for MIP last year and one first-place vote. He opened the preseason right next to Houston’s Amen Thompson as one of the favorites for MIP this season with consensus +1600 odds.

Avdija’s efficiency has suffered along with that back injury and he’s shooting just 42% from the floor and 18% from 3-point range over the past two months. His offensive rating (118) and other efficiency markers are essentially the same as last season, but Avdija is averaging 23.9 PPG and 6.7 APG due to a major bump in usage rate. He also averages a league-worst 5.5 turnovers per 100 possessions.

Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks

Since Johnson was running away with this award before a torn labrum ended his 2024-25 campaign, it makes sense that he’s been in the running most of the season. The versatile 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 22.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 8.1 APG, and jockeyed ahead of Avdija as the favorite around the All-Star Break.

Now dealing with another shoulder injury that is limiting his playing time and production, Johnson has dropped down odds boards to +3000 or longer at most books.

Is Johnson’s plummet down odds boards due in part to Alexander-Walker’s rise? Or due to ongoing concerns about shoulder soreness? His raw production is clearly on par with Duren but he’s not near the top of the NBA leaderboards in most advanced metrics. Also, Johnson’s breakout run during the first half of last season could sway voters from considering him as the most improved candidate.

NBA Most Improved Player Longshots

Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks

Rollins has been huge for the Bucks during a lost season and he kind of came out of nowhere. The Warriors and Wizards released him before he landed with the Bucks two years ago. This season he’s made a huge leap from 6.2 PPG to 17 PPG along with 4.6 RPG and 5.6 APG.

He was hanging onto the leaderboard with odds around +2500 in mid-March, but the Bucks have pulled the plug on their season with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) shut down and voters are very unlikely to give any of their players awards consideration, so Rollins is now a true longshot at +15000.

Collin Gillsepie, Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been one of the biggest surprises this season and that could sway voters to consider Gillespie, or consider Jordan Ott for Coach of the Year. Gillespie is averaging 13.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 4.8 APG while shooting 41.3% from downtown and he’s played in 73 of 74 games for Phoenix. While those numbers represent a breakout, Gillespie is well behind the other candidates on this list with +25000 odds to win the award.

Photo Credit: AP/John McDonnell

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.