Arizona State vs. Utah: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/16/21)

Arizona State vs. Utah Betting Odds

Both these Pac-12 teams are coming off huge conference victories, and this game is sure to be entertaining as a result.

However, the Sun Devils have clearly had the better season. After a tough loss to BYU, Herm Edwards’ team has ripped off three straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) victories – taking down Colorado, UCLA, and Stanford in the process.

Meanwhile, Utah got their first ATS victory last week. While the Utes are 3-2, they’re also just 1-4 ATS.

Surprisingly, the Sun Devils are laying just one point in this matchup. Has Vegas set a trap line? Or do we continue to ride Arizona State’s hot streak?

Arizona State Sun Devils Odds

The Sun Devils have an incredibly efficient offensive attack. Mostly because of their rushing attack, which is averaging 5.7 yards per carry through six games.

The Sun Devils currently rank fifth in Success Rate, third in Rushing Success Rate, and first in Standard Downs Success Rate. This team can move the ball and string together drives like no other team in the nation.

Their passing attack lacks explosiveness, but Jayden Daniels is still completing over 70% of his passes for almost 10 yards per attempt. He’s managed just a 4:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he still grades out as PFF’s 21st-best college quarterback.

He also adds an explosive element to this offense with his legs:

All-in-all, the Sun Devils grade out as PFF’s 13th-best offense, and tops in the Pac-12.

The defense has been questionable at times, but they are stifling in the passing game. The Sun Devil defense ranks in the top-20 in PFF’s coverage grades and Passing Success Rate, and they’re allowing just 180 passing yards per game as a result.

Plus, the Sun Devils have been efficient in crunch time. The defense ranks 15th in Points Per Opportunity and 26th in Redzone Efficiency. You can move the ball on them, but it’s tough to finish drives.

Utah Utes Odds

The Utes have looked great at times, but they’re mostly just average.

Utah ranks 74th in Offensive Success Rate and 62nd in Defensive Success Rate.  They rank 56th in points scored and 55th in points allowed. The quarterback, Cameron Rising, has completed 66% of his passes but for only 7.4 yards per attempt.

However, he’s created a bit of a spark for this offense, tossing a 300-yard game last week against USC and posting a 7:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. The Utes see potential in the Sophomore.

The defense isn’t efficient, but they’re frisky. The Utah defense ranks among the top-25 FBS defenses in Havoc and ranks among the top-30 in Passing Downs Success Rate.

If the Utes can get their opponent behind the sticks, this defense can do some damage.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Arizona State -1 (-110 at DraftKings)

I just don’t have enough respect for Utah yet.

The Utes have posted some good wins and will be a tough out, but Arizona State is looking like the Pac-12 frontrunner. The advanced statistics all indicate that the Sun Devils should win this game comfortably.

In the last nine meetings between these two, Arizona State has won six of them. That includes two of the last three, wherein the Sun Devils have outscored the Utes by 30.

This might be a rather contrarian pick, but I can’t avoid the Sun Devils at such short odds. If this line was closer to -3.5 or -4, I would consider taking the other side. But as it is, expect Edwards and Arizona State to end up victorious in this one.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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