Indiana vs. Ohio State: Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/12/22)
Entering week 11 in the College Football season, a Big Ten West matchup truly features a David vs. Goliath as the 3-6 Indiana Hoosiers head to Columbus to take on the undefeated and the 2nd ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. Indiana got off to a nice 3-0 start, but since then have fallen on a rough 6-game losing streak, dealing with coaching changes and quarterback injuries, Indiana is looking to gain their footing after falling on this losing slope.
They certainly will have their work cut out for them in this matchup against the top-ranked Big Ten team in Ohio State. Ohio State’s offense is as good as anyone in the country, but they did come slow out of the gate last week against a mediocre Northwestern team as weather conditions slowed their offensive performance down. If they want to prove they are still as offensively dominant as we get closer to bowl season, they will certainly need a big performance at home against the Hoosiers. Let’s break into this game’s matchup picks and predictions:
Indiana vs. Ohio State Picks & Predictions
My Pick: Indiana +40.5 (-108)
I think Ohio State wins in a massive statement by at least 30 points, but a line of 40.5 points is just too much for me to confidently pick Ohio State to cover that line. I think Ohio State can certainly get up to 40 points total, but after their slow-start last week against Northwestern, it makes me believe they might have a slow off the gate start against IU before running away with it but falling short of the cover line. Also, I have belief that Bazelak will be back running the Hoosier offense after the abysmal IU offensive performance last week. I think he may be able to find the end zone at least once in this game. The biggest question will be how Ohio State’s running game does against the Hoosiers. Penn State’s RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton ran all over IU last week so if they can close the gaps against Treveyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, that can keep IU from failing to cover.
I like the Over as well in this game as I think Ohio State can score around 40 or more points and I do expect IU to score as well. At least a touchdown and if it’s a blowout they could get another late score as Ohio State lets up. I think this could certainly go over 57.5.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Odds
As expected, the Ohio State Buckeyes are entering as heavy, heavy favorites in this matchup. Ohio State is moneyline favorites of -100000. They are massive spread line favorites of -40.5 points. This isn’t a surprise as IU got blown at home against Penn State 45-14. The same Penn State team that Ohio State beat 44-31. This game being played at Ohio State won’t make anything easier for this IU team. A team that has gone through much turmoil, with starting QB Connor Bazelak being out last week the Hoosiers resorted to their third-string freshman Dexter Williams II QB after backup Jack Tuttle got hurt.
The biggest question now is, who will be the starting QB for Indiana? Will Bazelak be healthy again on Saturday? Even if so, he was not playing his best football in recent games. Bazelak has 12-9 Touchdown to Interception ratio on the season. Dexter Williams II didn’t play much better last week with 2 INTs in the minutes he got. With how things have been going for IU, it makes sense why the line is so massive.
The over/under line is currently 57.5 points for the total. Ohio State averages a whopping 45.8 points while Indiana averages 23.3 points. Ohio State also averages only 15.8 points allowed per game while Indiana averages 32.2 points allowed. The line will definitely depend on Indiana’s ability to score.
Ohio State vs Indiana Key Matchup
C.J. Stroud vs. Indiana Defense
The biggest matchup of the game that will decide the spread outcome will QB C.J. Stroud vs. the Indiana Defense. The Indiana defense is averaging 32.2 points allowed and 264.4 passing yards allowed per game. The running game will certainly not have too much struggling but Stroud did not have a typical performance last week against Northwestern. He only threw for 76 yards with 0 TDs. He also only completed 10 of his 26 passes. He needs to get back to form in order for this Ohio State offense back to what they need to be. He still has 29 TDs and over 2,400 passing yards on the year, so it shouldn’t take too long to get back to normal.