Iowa Hawkeyes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/24/22)

The 2022 version of Iowa Hawkeyes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights is one of the ugliest games in college football history.

The total for this game opened at 35.5 and has tumbled to 34 since. These are two of the worst offenses in FBS and two of the top-40 defenses. This will be the greatest punting exhibition in college football history.

I can’t analyze this game better than this Redditor:

Rutgers v. Iowa could be the stuff of legends. A reader explores. https://t.co/g4aBG61dCL pic.twitter.com/kgjAScdNa8

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 21, 2022

But I’ll try. Where does the value lie for this one?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Iowa Hawkeyes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights odds, picks, and predictions.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights

I’ve mentioned the total, but the spread has barely budged. Rutgers is taking the majority of the money but the total has moved towards Iowa at some books.

The under looks to be the sharper play here – as ironic as that sounds – but it might be worth looking towards Iowa in this spot. Maybe the offense figured something out against Nevada last week.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Prediction & Pick

How do you break down the ugliest football game in history?

To start, these are two elite defensive lines.

Greg Schiano has always cooked up elite front sevens and he has depth for days upfront. 10 different defensive linemen should see time throughout the season. The Knights stuffed the Boston College Eagles on an absurd 37.5% of their rush attempts.

Iowa brought back seven of the top eight defensive linemen from last season and has just destroyed opposing offenses. They’ve allowed a combined 13 points through three games this season.

Both teams rank top-10 in Defensive Line Yards.

You’re also getting horrendous quarterback play. Iowa’s Spencer Petras is ranked 132nd in PFF’s quarterback grades while Rutgers’ Evan Simon – who is the presumed new starter over Gavin Wimsatt – is 83rd. Tej two have combined for two Big Time Throws and five Turnover Worthy Plays.

The Iowa defense is stronger on all three levels, especially in the secondary. But Rutgers is going to run the ball and do nothing else. Rutgers’ 68.2% Rush Rate is higher than all except six FBS teams.

And Rutgers has been somewhat successful running the ball. The Scarlet Knights currently rank top 35 in both Rush Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. Meanwhile, the Iowa defense is 124th in Rush Success Rate allowed.

I’m not overly confident, but I think Rutgers is the side here. All they need to do is put together one or two run-heavy scoring drives to cover this spread.

It’s also impossible to not take 7.5 points with a home underdog when the total is just 34.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Key Matchups

Key Matchup: Iowa’s Rush Defense vs Rutgers Rush Attack

Iowa is ranked very low in Rush Success Rate allowed this season, but they’re only allowing 2.1 yards per carry. Is Iowa’s rush defense elite or does it have some potentially exploitable holes?

Meanwhile, is Rutgers’ rush attack smoke and mirrors? They’ve put up these numbers against Temple, Wagner, and Boston College.

We should learn a lot about these two Big Ten teams through this matchup.