Kansas vs. Baylor Odds, Picks, Predictions (10/22/22)

Kansas was one of college football’s biggest sensations early in the season, but consecutive losses and an injury to QB Jalon Daniels have dampened the energy surrounding this team. Still, the Jayhawks have a prime opportunity to become bowl-eligible against a scuffling Baylor team on Saturday.

Can the Bears bounce back after a narrow loss at West Virginia, or will Kansas get back in the win column? Let’s take a look at the odds and make predictions for Saturday’s high-stakes matchup.

Kansas vs. Baylor Odds

Baylor is a decisive home favorite at -295 on the moneyline. The Bears are favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under is set at 61 points.

Kansas has consistently been an underdog this season, winning ATS four weeks in a row before tying ATS vs. TCU and coming up a point short of the spread against Oklahoma. Even without Daniels, oddsmakers are beginning to have some faith in the Jayhawks with this line hovering near a touchdown. Can Lance Leipold’s team regain momentum in Waco?

Kansas vs. Baylor Prediction & Pick

At 3-3, Baylor has been a disappointment, but this team feels close to a breakthrough. Two of their three losses went to overtime, and the other came against 5-1 Oklahoma State. It looks like the Bears have gotten their offense in order even in back-to-back losses, and Kansas’ defense should allow the Baylor offense to continue its improvement.

While I have Baylor winning this game, I trust Kansas to keep it close. The Jayhawks have shown enough to confirm that the offense isn’t in trouble without Daniels, and the running game could keep this engine humming against an underperforming Baylor defense.

Expect points in this game, and expect Kansas to keep this one close even if Baylor is the better team.

Kansas vs. Baylor Key Matchups

Baylor Passing Offense vs Kansas Secondary
Baylor just hasn’t been able to put it all together in the same week this season. The Bears’ offense didn’t look spectacular against BYU or Oklahoma State, and when it finally clicked against West Virginia, the defense allowed 43 points.

QB Blake Shapen hasn’t been overly impressive, but he’s been good enough for the Bears. What Baylor doesn’t have is a bellcow running back like Abram Smith, who helped carry the load last season.

Facing a Kansas defense that has struggled aside from a 14-11 win over Iowa State, Baylor has a chance to build on the progress they’ve made and score some points. The Jayhawks are allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game, and the run defense wasn’t any better when they gave up 52 points to Oklahoma this past weekend. Kansas also just lost standout cornerback Cobee Bryant to an injury in another blow to the pass defense.

Jason Bean vs the Baylor Secondary
Can Baylor slow Kansas’ offense? Jason Bean hasn’t looked like much of a downgrade from Jalon Daniels, at least as a passer. Bean has, however, been a bit turnover-prone since taking over, and the Bears have grabbed four interceptions over their last three games. Forcing turnovers could quickly turn a shootout in Baylor’s favor.

Kansas’ Run Game vs Baylor’s Run Defense
It’ll be interesting to see whether Kansas can take advantage of Baylor’s struggling run defense. The Jayhawks have primarily operated with a pass-based offense this season, but when they’ve gone to the ground game, it’s worked. Devin Neal is averaging 6.6 yards/carry and could take on a slightly larger workload against this Baylor defense if Bean’s turnovers are a concern.