LSU vs. Alabama kicks off this Saturday (11/04/23) at 7:45 EST in Tuscaloosa as a home game for the Crimson Tide. Get LSU vs. Alabama predictions and best bets below as our best bet is Alabama covering the spread off the backs of its defense.
LSU Vs. Alabama Prediction
It may not be the best Alabama squad coach Nick Saban has had, but this team just keeps on winning since bowing to the Texas Longhorns. Just when it looked like the Tide were going to suffer another loss in their last game against Tennessee, they woke up and held the Vols scoreless in the second half. LSU put on an offensive clinic as they boat-raced Army, 62-0.
LSU still controls its destiny for the SEC Championship game as a win over the Crimson Tide would give the Tigers the tie breaker and put them first in the West Division. The LSU defense may not have what it takes to get the anemic Bama offense off the field. LSU fails to generate any sort of defensive production to complement its high-powered offense.
It’s shocking to see how awful this Tigers defense is. The unit ranks 82nd in overall Def Success Rate, 117th in Def Explosiveness, 117th in Def Points per Opportunity, and 51st in Havoc. When not generating turnover-worthy plays, opposing offenses have had no issue with moving the ball down the field and punching it in for six when they enter the red zone. In the air, LSU ranks 115th in Def Pass PPA, 103rd in Def Pass Success Rate and 93rd in Def Pass Explosiveness.
That is exactly what the Alabama offense needs. The Tide’s pass attack has been hit or miss. Jalen Milroe has been the definition of boom or bust with his throwing ability. He’s flashed an elite downfield arm at times while also missing his receivers in short throws. Against LSU, the Alabama pass catching unit should have no issue with creating separation against the weak Tiger secondary. That could create massive throwing windows for Milroe.
The Bama defense is more than capable of slowing down the LSU pass attack under Jayden Daniels, a Heisman Trophy hopeful. LSU’s offense grades out as one of the best in the nation, yet missed opportunities can be fatal, given the porous defense. Alabama ranks fifth in Def Pass Success Rate, 25th in Def Pass PPA and 36th in Havoc.
LSU Vs. Alabama Prediction: Alabama -3
LSU Vs. Alabama Best Odds
LSU was a +7 underdog on the lookahead line before both teams have gone through a roller-coaster season. Even amidst two tough losses, oddsmakers still have this closer than it appears. They reopened the Tigers as a +4 dog. Bettors still believe that number has opened too high, backing it down to as low as +3 as of this writing.
Oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a lightning-quick pace. They opened the number at 60.5. Bettors have yet to take a stand on either side of the total, keeping the total the same since the opener. It’s tough to take a stand on either side of the number as Bama will be in a position to slow down LSU, yet the Tigers can rattle off an explosive play at a moment’s notice.
LSU Vs. Alabama Key Matchups
Can Jase McClellan hit the ground running against the LSU front seven?
Jase McClellan Vs. LSU Front Seven
Not only is Jalen Milroe in a position to shred the LSU defense, but star running back Jase McClellan may be in for a monster performance as the lead back for the Bama offense. A much-needed factor as Bama’s ground game has graded out slightly below average in advanced metrics.
We should be running the Read Option at least 10 to 15 times a game, not only do we have a QB that runs a 4.5 but it opened up the run game so much more smoother for Jase McClellan, he finished with 115 rushing yards.
Keep. The. Defense. Guessing. pic.twitter.com/p4PAM7nZpR
— Squidwards_WRLD (@SquidwardsWrld) October 24, 2023
Even when below average, the LSU rush defense is far worse off as they rank a lowly 103rd in Def Rush Success Rate, 115th in Def Rush PPA, and 93rd in Def Rush Explosiveness. McClellan will find himself with plenty of room to work with against a stretched-out Tigers defense and gain massive chunks of yardage on the ground with each carry.