Maryland vs. Indiana Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/15/2022)

A week seven matchup in the Big Ten West features a game of the Maryland Terrapins traveling to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers.  Both teams are fighting to get to six wins in a tough division and both are right around the halfway point.  Indiana started off the year to a strong 3-0 start but have struggled since entering Big Ten play and have lost three straight.  The Maryland Terrapins are standing at 4-2 and lost a close one to Purdue last week that they would desperately want back. 

Maryland has shown a strong offense this year but penalties and defense have been issues this year.  Indiana QB Connor Bazelak has been consistent when he needs to, but has struggled with accuracy and the run game has yet to get going.  Let’s break into this game’s odds and predictions.

Maryland Vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Due to Indiana’s recent struggles and Maryland playing close in game’s against strong competition, Maryland is entering this game as large favorites.  They are currently moneyline favorites at -455 odds and a spread line of a whopping -11.5 points.  This is quite a large spread considering this game is at Indiana, but does make sense.  Indiana has really struggled in their past three games and their only win of note is their week one win against Illinois.  They took big losses to Michigan and a struggling Nebraska team by two touchdowns or more. 

Maryland’s only two losses came from their two-point loss to Purdue last week and against Michigan, but in their Michigan game they played close and only lost by seven points.  Maryland is currently averaging 34 points per game while Indiana is averaging just 24.3.  They are also averaging over approximately 100 total yards per game as well.  Indiana’s defense will need a big game against Maryland and it is possible.  They held Michigan’s offense to just ten points in the first half before being overmatched later in the game.

The over/under total line is being placed at 61.5 points.  Both of these teams have shown they struggle defensively at times and their offense both have ability to score so I think this number makes sense.

Maryland Vs. Indiana Picks & Prediction

My pick: Maryland -11.5 (-110)

I think Maryland rides with the momentum they’ve been on and covers the 11.5 points.  Indiana showed in their past two games they can keep it close in the first half but struggles to keep up offensively in the second half.  They were held scoreless against Michigan and Nebraska in the 2nd half.  They also showed a lot of turnover errors in their 21 point loss to Cincinnati.  Maryland’s defense hasn’t been lights out but it did hold Michigan State to just 13 points on the road and have had no issues offensively.  They have scored over 25 points per game.  Taulia Tagovailoa has been great as well at finding receivers.  He has five INTs on the season to Connor Bazelak’s six INTs. 

The biggest issue Indiana has is their running game where I think Maryland’s defense will be able to capitalize.  They were held to just 19 rushing yards against Michigan.  Indiana shows lapses to be competitive with any team, but other moments where they completely get overmatched.  I think Maryland will be able to take advantage of those moments to cover and win around two touchdowns.

The over/under total of 61.5 points seems like a lot, but if both of these score around 30 that total is definitely possible.  My only issue is Indiana’s offense in the second half that has continuously struggled.  I think those issues may come out again and while I think this game’s totals will be in the 50s, I project the under to hit.

Maryland vs Indiana Key Matchups

Taulia Tagovailoa vs. Indiana Defense
Taulia Tagovailoa against the Hoosier defense is the major matchup I’m watching for in this game.  Indiana did a good job containing Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in the first half last week, but he finished the game with 3 TDs and over 300 passing yards in a 31-10 finish.  Nebraska QB Casey Thompson also threw for a couple TDs in IU’s 35-21 loss against them.  Tagovailoa threw for 3 TDs and an interception in their Purdue loss but he has been great on the year with his 11 TDs.  TE Corey Dyches and the WR trio of Jeshaun Jones, Rakim Jarrett, and Jacob Copeland has been very strong as well as Tagovailoa has had no issue connecting with them. I think Tagovailoa will have another strong game against the Hoosiers.