Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats Odds, Picks, Predictions (10/15/22)

Mississippi State Looks good. Except for a fluky loss to LSU in Baton Rouge a few weeks ago, the Bulldogs have cruised to a 5-1start with dominant wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Arizona.

The Bulldogs will now travel to Lexington to take on a frisky Kentucky team coming off back-to-back brutal losses. Quarterback Will Levis has been hurt, and is currently listed as day-to-day.

Mark Stoops usually has his team prepared for these spots, and this could be a tricky schedule spot for MSST who will be going to Alabama next week.

That begs the question: Where does the value lie?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats Broncos odds, picks, and predictions.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats Odds

This line opened around a touchdown but the sharp money has been hammering Kentucky. The line is down to UK +6 at some books.

The under is also taking smart money, with just 50% of the tickets on the under but over 90% of the money. That line should continue to drop as we get closer to game time.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction & Pick

I think we’re not going to get Levis this week. Here’s the latest update I’ve seen:

Scang on QB Will Levis through this weeks practices pic.twitter.com/Kdz68KSnSn

— Jordan Mathus (Inevitable pain) (@JordanMathusCC) October 11, 2022

Kentucky is a run-first offense, but the Wildcats have been much more effective through the air. Backup Kaiya Sheron was fine against South Carolina but failed to complete more than 55% of his 27 attempts. Levis may not be the best quarterback in the world, but Sheron limited the offense more.

The Kentucky defense has been the staple of the Stoops era. They’ve been ruthlessly efficient against the run (sixth in Rush Success Rate Allowed), in the secondary (29th in PFF’s Coverage grades, 14th in Pass Success Rate allowed), and in the red zone (12th in Points Per Opportunity allowed).

The Kentucky defense is going to need to show up in this one. Mississippi State is rolling. Mike Leach has had three years in Starkville to implement the air raid and has the perfect roster to execute his offense. The Bulldogs are rolling.

Everything revolves around Will Rogers, who is turning into one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He’s been so surgical in the pocket and, despite having a below-average offensive line, has relentlessly tormented secondaries.

In this play, look at how Rogers goes through his progressions, navigates the pocket, and finds the man on the goal line for the touchdown.

Will Rogers carving up the Arkansas defense #HailState #Arkansas pic.twitter.com/BjlVRjkktE

— Off The Deck Sports (@OffTheDeck_) October 8, 2022

But this is a tough schedule spot for an ascending Mississippi State team. We’re catching the Bulldogs at the top of their market in an away sandwich spot between Arkansas and Alabama.

Sadly, I can’t put my faith in Kentucky without Levis under center.

I think we get a low-scoring Rock Fight in which the Wildcats keep it close, but the numbers aren’t quite there for me yet. If you must bet on this game, take Kentucky and the under.

I will pass.

Leans: Kentucky +6.5 | Under 46.5

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats Key Matchups

Key Matchup: Will Rogers vs Kentucky’s Secondary

This is always the matchup when you face a Mike Leach offense. Are your defensive backs smart and quick enough to keep up with the crossers? Is Rogers going to move the defense seamlessly with his eyes and make passes like this:

https://twitter.com/dp_nfl/status/1578811557022429184?s=21&t=262VuwwxI5MYuCSJ42N_hQ

Rogers had no trouble abusing Arkansas’ horrific secondary. But Kentucky is a different beast, it has much better players. This could be a big test for Rogers and a Mississippi team looking to make some noise in the SEC West.

It will also be the only way Kentucky could win or cover in this game. The Wildcat secondary needs to step up and make the stops the Razorback secondary couldn’t last week.