Navy is visiting SMU after beating Tulsa last week on the road, while SMU lost on the road last week to UCF. This should be a great matchup, especially for SMU to rebound after the way they lost last week. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this game!
Navy vs. SMU Odds
SMU is a 13.5-point home favorite and is also at -54o on the money line. The over/under is also at 57.5. SMU being this big of a favorite makes sense because Navy has not been all that good. SMU has not been great either, but they’ve been more consistent, especially on offense. The over/under here makes a lot of sense too. SMU has a very good offense, while Navy has shown they can score, but they are just inconsistent. The only reason this might not go over, is because of Navy potentially holding onto the ball a lot through time of possession.
Navy vs. SMU Prediction & Pick
The Pick: SMU -13.5
SMU should win this game pretty easily. The SMU offense is the key in this game, and it’s been the key for them throughout the year up to this point. The offense is averaging 35 points and 500 total yards a game. The key is the passing game, lead by Tanner Mordecai at quarterback and then Rashee Rice as a go-to wide receiver. The most yards they have had in a single game was Week 1 where they had 576 total yards. SMU’s defense is suspect on the other end, with them giving up an average of 29 points and 417 total yards. However, it may not matter because the Midshipmen are nothing special on offense. Navy is averaging only 21 points and 342 total yards on offense. They are also giving up an average of 21 points and 349 total yards.
Navy has been decent on defense for the most part, but the offense just hasn’t been there this year. Their best offensive output was just last week when they scored 53 total points and had 490 total yards of offense against Tulsa. They also had 455 yards on the ground alone, which is due in large part to the type of offense they run, but still that is very impressive. SMU, however, has more to play for still than Navy. It also feels like that type of performance that came out of the blue and won’t be the norm anymore. The consistency just isn’t there for Navy, which is why the easy bet here is to take the Mustangs and the points.
Navy vs. SMU Key Matchups
Can Navy do anything to stop Tanner Mordecai through the air? How will SMU contain Navy’s option attack?
Tanner Mordecai vs the Navy Secondary
Tanner Mordecai came back after having a great year last year. The Mustangs in general, are averaging 355 passing yards. He has 1,680 passing yards on the year so far, while also throwing 12 touchdown passes, and six interceptions. He also has a completion percentage of 59%. His best game was in Week 1 when he had 432 passing yards and four touchdown passes. The Navy secondary has already been gashed by a similar style of passing offense when Memphis played them and had 415 yards through the air. This is the key for Navy’s defense, and for them to have a chance.
The Navy Rushing Offense vs the SMU Front Seven
Due to the style of offense the Midshipmen run, many different players get carries, and it’s hard to nail down a go-to running back. The triple option is a very difficult offense to prepare for, so this will be a big challenge for SMU’s defense. The Midshipmen are averaging 232 rushing yards and the most they got in a game was 455 just last week against Tulsa. If SMU can do anything to contain this running game then they have a chance to run away with this game.