Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/23/21)

Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Betting Odds

Surprisingly, Oklahoma State is 6-0 entering this matchup. After falling way behind last week against Texas, the Cowboys stormed back to upset the Longhorns 32-24. They also picked up Big 12 wins over Baylor and Kansas State in the two games before that.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has stuttered in the early season. They’ve already suffered disappointing losses to Iowa (as four-point favorites) and Baylor (as seven-point favorites), but they’ve won and covered in their last two games (against Kansas and Kansas State).

It’s going to be tempting to take the seven points with Oklahoma State in this spot, but I’d be very skeptical of the Cowboys right now.

Let’s dive into why.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Odds

Oklahoma State won their game against Texas while being outclassed in Success Rate (42% to 37%) and Standard Downs Success Rate (53% to 42%). The Longhorns were in the red zone up 17-3, when Jason Taylor II intercepted a ball and returned it 85 yards for a touchdown. It was a 14-point swing that changed the fate of this game.

Here’s Dave Hunziker’s call of the Jason Taylor pick-six. So good. pic.twitter.com/GbE9RLkn76

— Pistols Firing (@pistolsguys) October 16, 2021

My point is: I think Oklahoma State is a bit overrated. This team is 98th in Offensive Success Rate and 26th in Defensive Success rate, yet the Cowboys are ranked 12th in the nation. I’m expecting some regression from this team.

It won’t come from the offense, which is already underachieving. The Cowboys are averaging a measly 3.6 yards per carry, while quarterback Spencer Sanders is completing less than 60% of his passes for a 6:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

However, perhaps the defense will start to fade as the season goes on. Oklahoma State is top-10 in Defensive Points Per Opportunity despite ranking outside the top-30 in both Defensive Standard Downs and Defensive Passing Downs Success Rate.

Iowa State Cyclones Odds

It’s Brocktober.

Brock Purdy turns it on when the calendar finally turns from September. Since Purdy took over the quarterbacking duties in 2018, the Cyclones are 10-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in October, including 2-0 this season.

Over these past two games, Purdy has completed 39 of his 47 passes (82%) for 453 yards and a 5:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Brock settles in come October, and I’m excited to see what he does this week.

https://twitter.com/CycloneFB/status/1449746111829135360?s=20

This defense isn’t quite as talented as Oklahoma State’s, but they have their strengths. Particularly in the passing game, where they’re holding opposing quarterbacks to 150 yards per game on a 59% completion rate.

You can move the ball on Iowa State, wherein they rank outside the top-50 in Defensive Standard Downs Success Rate. However, don’t get behind the sticks, because Iowa State ranks inside the top 30 in Defensive Passing Downs Success Rate.

But, it can be difficult to avoid that, as Cyclone opponents are rushing for only 2.9 yards per carry so far this season.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Iowa State -7 (-115 at DraftKings)

As mentioned, I believe Oklahoma State is overvalued in this spot, and I’m expecting regression. They’re probably getting more respect than they deserve following that huge win over Texas, and I’d love to sell high on them here.

And what better time to do so than against Brocktober. Purdy and Co. should steamroll this team for their third straight win and cover this month, only adding to Brock’s legend.

Moreover, the sharps are all over Iowa State in this spot. While the Cyclones are pulling only 33% of the tickets, they’re also getting over 50% of the handle.

The line is likely to keep moving, so grab the Cyclones at -7 before it gets steamed to -7.5.