Purdue Boilermakers vs Syracuse Orange Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/17/22)

Syracuse is having a great start to its season. The Orange dominated Louisville as five-point dogs in Week 1 and proceeded to overwhelm UConn in Week 2. The Orange are 2-0 SU and ATS.

Purdue was a fourth-quarter stop away from being 2-0 SU and ATS. Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lions scored with 57 seconds left to barely avoid the home upset.

People are asking if Syracuse is a threat in the ACC this season. They do have a lot of returning production, but the Boilermakers will be a firm test.

Can the Orange keep rolling?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Purdue Boilermakers vs Syracuse Orange odds, picks, and predictions.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Syracuse Orange

Syracuse opened as 1.5-point underdogs. The line was immediately bet to a pick ‘em and has now been bet down even further.

The Orange aren’t even taking most of the tickets and, at the time of writing, are receiving just less than 50% of the handle. This is characterized as Reverse Line Movement, and it’s both a profitable bet signal and an indicator of smart money.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Syracuse Orange Prediction & Pick

Syracuse loves to run the ball. They ran for 214 yards per game last season to just 153 passing yards. The Orange brought in Robert Anae to be the offensive coordinator, and he ran pass-happy offenses with Virginia, Arizona, and BYU. The expectation was a slightly adjusted offensive attack.

That’s somewhat true. Through two games, Syracuse is still running the ball at a top-15 rate nationally (63%) and is still uber-effective at doing so (10th in Rush Play Success Rate). But Anae has made Garrett Shrader into an efficiency machine, as he’s completed 80% of his passes for 11.1 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Orange rank 13th in Passing Plays Success Rate and sixth in Passing Downs Success rate.

Shrader is clicking, and the Orange are clicking because of it.

Purdue has a great quarterback in Aidan O’Connell, and the offense should be able to move the ball alright.

But the Purdue defense is outside the top 50 nationally in Rush Defense Success Rate and Rush Defense Stuff Rate (including 2021 and not including non-major Indiana State). The Boilermakers just suffered the loss of All-American defensive end George Karlafitis and fellow defensive end DaMarcus Mitchell. That is going to be trouble against a Syracuse offense that can move the ball with the best of them.

I think Purdue gets roasted on the ground, and that will lead to a tough defeat.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Syracuse Orange Key Matchups

Key Matchup: Garrett Shrader vs Purdue Secondary

After two weeks, Shrader is the best quarterback in the nation. At least in Pro Football Focus’ mind.

For the second week in a row, Garrett Shrader is the highest-rated P5 QB in the country, according to @PFF_College… this time he was the highest-graded PLAYER. pic.twitter.com/JTDrSJ4hrA

— Syracuse Football (@CuseFootball) September 12, 2022

But he hasn’t faced an elite defense yet. But that won’t change this week with Purdue’s losses in the front seven.

However, the strongest part of this Purdue defense is the secondary. So, I’m curious how much Shrader will be able to cook in this one, or if Syracuse will simply ground-and-pound their way to a victory.