Purdue vs Illinois Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/12/22)

The Big Ten West is still anyone’s division as we enter week 11 in the College Football season. Two of those teams that still have a chance at the divisional crown are playing this week as the Purdue Boilermakers head to Illinois to take on the 21st ranked Fighting Illini. Purdue comes into this game with a 5-4 record and 3-3 Big Ten record sitting tied for 3rd in the Big Ten West. Illinois enters this game 7-2 with a 4-2 Big Ten Record sitting at the top of the Big Ten West. Illinois has already won their sixth game for bowl eligibility,but now need this win badly to truly mount their position as Big Ten West frontrunners. Purdue is still one win short of bowl eligibility so getting this win would get them over that hump, plus if they win this game over Illinois it means alot moving forward in the Big Ten West as these two teams would have the same conference record and Purdue would have the tiebreaker.

Illinois has certainly exceeded expectations on the season and have been performing well on both sides of the ball, but is there spark set to run out after a tough loss last weekend to Michigan State? Purdue was expected to be a potential Big Ten West frontrunner and they have had some slip ups, but is this the week they figure it out? Let’s get into this matchup’s picks and predictions:

Purdue vs. Illinois Picks & Predictions

My Pick: Purdue +6.5 (-108)
I know Illinois has gotten off to a really hot start this year, but I think Purdue is a more talented team offensively and will be able to cover the 6.5 points to keep it super close or at least win. The Big Ten West is so close that I don’t think Illinois will just run away with it, and I think last week’s loss to Michigan State might have been the end of their hot streak.

Both have talented QBs and it’ll be up to Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell to truly step up after a very rough game last week against Iowa. Tommy Devito has thrown for over 1,400 yards and 14 TDs with only two INTs. Purdue hasn’t been the greatest defensively this year but they do have 10 interception takeaways on the year, so if they can slow down the passing game and focus solely on Illinois’ running game, they certainly have a chance to come out this game victorious.

Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Odds

With Illinois playing at home and coming into this game ranked, they are entering as early favorites at -260 moneyline odds. They are also spread line favorites -6.5 points so it is expected to be a pretty close game with Illinois being favored by slightly less than a touchdown.

Purdue will need to step up defensively in this game as that is the biggest difference between these two as both offenses are quite similar. Purdue allows 355.7 yards per game while Illinois allows only 232.7 yards allowed. Illinois is definitely led by their rushing game and RB Chase Brown and the Illini are averaging 192.7 yards per game while Purdue is letting up on average 118.6 rushing yards per game. They will need to close these rushing gaps and be stout defensively to stay in this game.

The over/under total is currently 44.5 points which seems low considering these teams scoring averages but makes sense when you include Illinois’ defensive average. Purdue averages 29.4 points per game while Illinois averages 24.8. Purdue’s defense averages 25.3 points allowed per game though, while Illinois averages only 10.4 points allowed.

Purdue vs Illinois Key Matchup

Aidan O’Connell vs. Illinois Defense
The biggest matchup will be Aidan O’Connell and the Purdue offense vs. the Illinois defense. The Illinois offense has been incredible this year led by DB Sydney Brown. They are averaging 10.4 allowed per game and only 232.2 yards allowed. Their first game they let up more than 20 points was last week against Michigan State. They held Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska to ten points or less.

Sydney Brown has 4 INTs on the season so it would be big if he is able to take it away from O’Connell. O’Connell struggled last week against Iowa with 2 INTS thrown and no TDs. He does have almost 2500 passing yards and 15 TDs on the year so if he is able to have a strong game it will certainly keep Purdue in this game as the Boilermakers do have the offensive advantage statistically.

Jack is a Hoosier by birth and Hoosier by alum. Full of hot takes but sharper predictions. Residing now in the Chicago area. When he's not chowing down on deep dish pizza and Italian beef, he's watching and betting sports. Junkie for everything CBB, NBA, NFL, CFB, and MLB. Here to feed you a system to follow that might even be better than the one Tom Brady was gifted his whole career.

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