San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah Utes Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/17/22)

Cam Rising and the Utes took out his Week 1 loss to Florida by dropping 73 points on Southern Utah. Must’ve felt good.

But you know what will feel better? Beating San Diego State by double-digits after losing to them in triple overtime last season.

Can the Utes pull off that feat? Or cover a three-touchdown spread?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah Utes odds, picks, and predictions.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah Utes

This line opened with Utah as just 16-point favorites. But perhaps last week’s performance against Southern Utah convinced some bettors that just wasn’t enough.

Utah was just an eight-point favorite when they dropped that game in San Diego last season. But given this game is in Salt Lake City and the Utes are now defending Pac-12 champions.

The total opened above 52 and has now hit the key number of 49 at some books. The money continues to flow in on the Under but there should be some buy-back.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah Utes Prediction & Pick

San Diego State’s 18-point loss to Arizona was a very disappointing way to start the Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. The Aztecs built a beautiful new stadium and proceeded to lay an egg in it immediately.

They bounced back, but a big win over Idaho State doesn’t say much.

But we can learn two things from San Diego State’s Week 1 loss.

First, the offense might not be much better despite bringing in Braxton Burmeister. The team finished with a 46% Success Rate on Standard Downs and a 13% Success Rate on Passing Downs. The former mirrored 2021’s results while the latter was horrendous.

Second, the defense might take a step back. Arizona finished with a 50% Success Rate, including a 41% Success Rate on Passing Downs. This Arizona team is looking to be much better than expected, but the Aztecs were top-10 in both statistics last season. They also allowed the Wildcats eight drives past their own 40-yard line. This has been a bad start for the Aztecs. They

Brady Hoke will likely get his guys straightened out, and the Aztecs have a reason for optimism. They shouldn’t go 2-for-11 on third down again, shouldn’t finish with only 2.6 points per opportunity again, and showed they can still score against Idaho State.

Meanwhile, Cam Rising and Utah were one late-game interception away from dropping 33 on Florida in Gainsville. With Rising playing as well as he is and an offensive line that can reinforce a strong running game, it’s going to be incredibly hard to stop the Utes’ balanced offensive attack.

Through two games, Utah ranks top-20 in both Standard Downs Success Rate and Passing Downs Success Rate while ranking 14th in Predicted Points Added per play. This Utah offense is good.

So, I’m expecting points in this matchup. The Over hit in this matchup last year, with 64 points being scored between the two. Plus, San Diego State hit the Over against Arizona and Utah is 2-0 to the Over this season.

I’m going to bet the Over against in 2022, especially now that the number has dropped below 50.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah Utes Key Matchups

Key Matchup: San Diego State Dual-Threat Rush Attack vs Utah’s Front Seven

Utah lost Devin Lloyd last offseason alongside five of the top-seven tacklers. Florida took advantage by rushing for a whopping 283 yards and four scores on just 39 attempts (7.3 yards per attempt). A big part of that was quarterback Anthony Richardson, who cooked Utah for 60 yards with read-option looks.

Because of that game, Utah’s Standard Down and Rushing Play metrics on defense look particularly bad so far in 2022.

In theory, Burmeister gives San Diego State a different rushing look. He ran for 520 yards at Virginia Tech last season and has already compiled 100 yards through two games this season.

https://twitter.com/bfish804/status/1311440714664996864?s=21

If San Diego State can be similarly effective on the ground, they should cover. And both teams will definitely hit the Over.