UCLA Bruins vs Colorado Buffaloes Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/24/22)
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Chip Kelly is 3-0, although it doesn’t feel like it. The Bruins salvaged a win against South Alabama, and one they didn’t deserve.
South Alabama ran a trick play instead of kicking the field goal to put them up 5
UCLA drove down the field and kicked a game winning field goal after this
— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) September 17, 2022
The Bruins also did it in front of an almost empty Rose Bowl.
Eyeballing it, this looks like South Alabama will be a smaller crowd than #UCLA’s game last week with Alabama State. pic.twitter.com/OFY1ygTIsa
— Bruin Report Online (@BruinReport) September 17, 2022
Embarrassment aside, the Bruins should be good this year. The offense has the firepower, although the defense is a work in progress.
Colorado is one of the worst Power 5 teams in the nation. The Buffaloes are now 0-3, and their resume includes:
- A 49-7 loss to Minnesota
- A 10-41 loss to Air Force
- A 13-38 loss to TCU
Things are very bad in Boulder.
Can the Buffaloes bounce back and compete with the Bruins? Or will it be more of the same?
Let’s break it down. Read on for our UCLA Bruins vs Colorado Buffaloes odds, picks, and predictions.
UCLA Bruins vs Colorado Buffaloes
Given the state of both programs, UCLA is a three-touchdown favorite over Colorado on the road. Given the public’s nature, all the money has poured in on UCLA and pushed this line even higher.
However, we need to ascertain if this is too many points for a home underdog. Remember, UCLA has lost three straight in Boulder.
Meanwhile, the total has seen some drop from the initial opener of 57.5, but there has barely been any movement.
UCLA Bruins vs Colorado Buffaloes Prediction & Pick
It’s fair to be worried about UCLA.
They haven’t played anyone good yet and struggled mightily against South Alabama. The defense only returned two starters and five of last year’s top-15 tacklers, so there are a lot of kinks to work out. They have three transfers in the front seven core that need more time in the system.
As a result, the defense managed to stuff South Alabama at a putrid 0.063% rate. The Bruins created almost no Havoc, as well. South Alabama finished with a 50% Success Rate overall and a 58% Success Rate in the first 45 minutes.
Dorian Tompson Robinson is back alongside lead rusher Zach Charbonnet. Surprisingly the offensive line has been tremendous, as the Bruins are 14th in Offensive Line Yards so far this season.
There’s nothing to glean from Colorado’s season so far. They’re the worst defense in the nation in terms of Success Rate.
The Colorado offensive line has been alright, however, ranking top-40 in Line Yards so far this season. That’s led to a top-60 Standard Downs Success Rate. It’s been the lone bright spot in their season.
Add that onto UCLA’s issues in Boulder and a look-ahead spot to Washington next Friday, and Colorado is the play here. But the line is slightly too low for me to play it, considering I make this spread about 21.
I’d consider betting on the Buffaloes at 23.5 or better.
Lean: Colorado +22 (-110) at WynnBet Sportsbook | Play at +23.5 (-110)
UCLA Bruins vs Colorado Buffaloes Key Matchups
Key Matchup: Colorado’s Offensive Line vs UCLA’s Front Seven
As mentioned, Colorado’s had a half-decent offensive line showing so far. If the Buffaloes want to have any success, they have to play a great game against UCLA.
UCLA has been fine from a Defensive Line Yards measurement, but it’s clear that the Bruins haven’t been overwhelming and have failed to create Havoc.
If the Buffaloes get a push at the point of attack and can move the ball consistently on Standard Downs, they should control the time of possession enough to cover this big spread.
If the Buffaloes get stuffed on early downs, UCLA will score early and often and the Bruins will win by 40.
