UCLA vs. Oregon Odds, Picks, Predictions (10/22/22)

The game of the week might be in the Pac-12, as undefeated No. 9 UCLA travels to Eugene to face No. 10 Oregon. Halfway through his best season with the Bruins, Chip Kelly faces his former program with plenty on the line. UCLA and Oregon are the only two Pac-12 teams still unbeaten in conference play, and a win would at least keep either team in the playoff conversation.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make predictions for Saturday’s high-stakes matchup.

UCLA vs. Oregon Odds

Bo Nix and Oregon have worked their way up the ranks after their 49-3 loss to Georgia in Week 1, and the over/under indicates why: Offense. The Ducks have scored 40+ points in five consecutive games. UCLA, meanwhile, has tried its best to match that production with five 40+ point performances of their own this season. These teams will both score points, which could create a chaotic and unpredictable finish.

UCLA vs. Oregon Prediction & Pick

Both of these offenses have serious momentum right now. Dorian Thompson-Robinson might give UCLA the quarterback advantage, but Oregon’s collection of rushing options has sent Pac-12 defenses into a tailspin all season. If UCLA’s defense had a tough time with Utah and Washington, I’m concerned about its ability to hold up on the road against an Oregon that has clearly found something.

The path to a win for UCLA runs through stopping Bo Nix through the air. Oregon will pile up yards on the ground – that’s a given. Can the defense totally cut off an inconsistent Nix and the passing game? Results so far this season indicate it can’t. As impressive as Thompson-Robinson and bellcow RB Zach Charbonnet have been, I question whether those two alone can help the Bruins keep up.

UCLA vs. Oregon Key Matchups

Zach Charbonnet vs the Oregon Front
Stopping this UCLA offense will be a challenge for Oregon, to be fair. The running game has carried the load more often than not, with Charbonnet lighting it up on the ground of late, but Thompson-Robinson has morphed into a high-end passer with 12 touchdown passes in his last four games.

It looks like the offense will run through Charbonnet and the running game again. Oregon did a decent job of limiting the passing offenses of Stanford and Arizona over the past two games, but the opposing running games were mostly efficient. This game might ride on what Charbonnet can do.

Oregon’s Run Game vs the UCLA Defense
Oregon’s running game is an even greater threat in this game. Bo Nix has been solid of late, but is he trustworthy as a passer in these kinds of games? He completed 55.2% of passes against Stanford and didn’t throw a touchdown pass against Arizona. In both matchups, however, the Ducks ran for more than 300 yards. It’s far from one player – Oregon had four players (including Nix) rush for 65+ yards vs. Arizona, and Nix led the effort vs. Stanford with 141 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

UCLA’s run defense hasn’t been tested very much this season. Utah ran for 192 yards in its loss to the Bruins, but their offense isn’t necessarily run-based. UCLA held up well against Washington’s rushing attack, but it’s not much of an attack – that offense runs through QB Michael Penix Jr.

There should be some concern that Chip Kelly’s team hasn’t faced an offense with this many lethal options on the ground. Oregon has caught other Pac-12 opponents off guard on the ground and could do so again this weekend to take control in the conference.