Wake Forest vs. North Carolina: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/6/21)

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Betting Odds

As the 8-0 Wake Forest Demon Deacons prepare to play the 4-4 North Carolina Tar Heels, we should prepare ourselves for a high-flying ACC battle.

This total currently sits at a whopping 76, as both offenses score over 36 points per game and both defenses allow over 25. Wake Forest recently scored 70 points against Army, while UNC dropped 45 on Miami and 34 on Notre Dame.

In the last 10 meetings between these two, seven have gone over.

But does that mean we’re in for more of the same this Saturday? Or is there a better betting angle we could take?

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Odds

The Deacons are the class of the ACC. But this year’s version of the conference is pathetic, and Wake’s résumé is poor as a result.

It’s hard to know what this team’s best win is. Over 2-3 Florida State? Or maybe over 2-3 Louisville or 4-2 Virginia?

The Deacons do play No. 19 North Carolina State in two weeks, so that will be very telling of what this team can do.

However, we know what this team can’t do: Defend the run. Wake Forest ranks 105th in Defensive Rush Success Rate and 101st in Defensive Standard Downs Success Rate. The Deacons are allowing over 200 yards per game at 4.7 yards per carry, as teams continue to string together long drives against them on the ground.

It’s a miracle they were able to beat Army, considering their defense plays right into the triple-option’s hands. However, the offense is absurdly explosive, ranking 11^th in Offensive Explosiveness and averaging 6.8 yards per play. As a result, they were able to drop 70 on Army’s heads and come away with a shoot-out victory.

But if Wake Forest expects to keep winning, that’s how they’ll have to do it. Sam Hartman and the rush attack must continue to out-duel their opposing offenses and out-score their own defense.

You have to wonder if that’s sustainable.

North Carolina Tar Heels Odds

While Wake Forest has been unexpectedly good, North Carolina has crumpled this season.

All Sam Howell Heisman tickets and North Carolina championship futures were shredded the moment the Tar Heels took the field against Virginia Tech. They suffered an embarrassing, 17-10 loss despite being ranked No. 10 in the nation.

Since then, UNC has compiled a 4-4 record, a 3-5 ATS record, and is now unranked. The Tar Heels have suffered losses to Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and a previously winless Florida State team.

So, things haven’t been well in Chapel Hill.

However, the offense is still dangerous, particularly the run game. The Tar Heels rush for over 200 yards per game at over five yards per carry and rank sixth in Rush Success Rate. Howell has been underwhelming with his arm but has added almost 600 yards on the ground at 5.2 yards per carry. The perfect complement to Ty Chandler’s 671 yards and 5.5 yards per carry.

But the offensive line makes their job easy, as the unit ranks ninth in Line Yards.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: North Carolina -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

The Tar Heels, for all their issues, are 4-1 at home this season. Look for them to pick up another home win Saturday at noon.

Sharp money has been hitting the Tar Heels all week, and I believe it wise to follow the smart money in this spot.

Remember, while the Tar Heels have one of the deadliest rush attacks in the nation, the Demon Deacons have one of the worst rush defenses in the nation. This is a bad matchup spot for Wake Forest, and the team is due to take a loss.