Washington vs. Arizona: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/22/21)

Washington vs. Arizona Betting Odds

Two of Pac-12’s worst teams meet up in Tucson Friday evening, as the 2-4 Washington Huskies travel to play the 0-6 Arizona Wildcats. These two teams have combined to go 3-9 against the spread (ATS) this season.

Washington had slightly higher expectations entering the season, but they’ve now suffered back-to-back losses against Oregon State and UCLA. Seattle residents aren’t happy with their football team.

Meanwhile, Arizona was supposed to be bad, but this has been pathetic. Last week, they took on Colorado as six-point underdogs and were shut out in a 34-0 loss. The offense can’t get anything going, scoring just 14 points per game this season, which ranks second-to-last.

However, the Wildcats are catching 18 points at home in this matchup, and that number may pose some value.

Washington Huskies Odds

Washington’s offense is horrendous.

The Huskies have a balanced attack, averaging 35.8 pass attempts and 32.2 rush attempts per game. But neither has been all that effective, as quarterback Dylan Morris is averaging just 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt (per Sports-Reference) with an 8:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while top running back Sean McGrew is averaging less than four yards per carry.

In terms of efficiency, Washington is a middling offense, ranking 65th in Success Rate, 65th in Standard Downs Success Rate, and 82nd in Passing Downs Success Rate. However, they haven’t turned that into many points, as their 23.5 points per game are 100th in the FBS.

Washington’s defensive efficiency metrics are also middling. However, they’ve managed to hold opponents to only 20 points per game. However, since Pac-12 play started, the Huskies have allowed 24 points (Cal), 27 points (Oregon State), and 24 points again (UCLA). So, I’m expecting some regression in the Washington defense as the season progresses.

Arizona Wildcats Odds

If Washington’s offense is horrendous, then Arizona’s offense is non-existence. They’ve scored one rushing touchdown all season, and their three quarterbacks have combined for a 6:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Their offense was on full display last week against Colorado, where they managed 280 yards of total offense, 3.9 yards per passing play, two interceptions, and zero points. The loss extended Arizona’s losing streak to 18, the longest in the nation.

While Arizona can move the ball consistently sometimes, ranking 68th in Standard Downs Success Rate, there’s zero explosiveness. The Wildcats rank 129th in Offensive Explosiveness, their three quarterbacks have completed three of their 28 attempts 20+ yards downfield, and they’ve managed only 10 rushes of 15+ yards.

Meanwhile, they’re the opposite on defense. Arizona ranks among the bottom-10 FBS teams in Defensive Explosiveness and Passing Downs Success Rate, allowing explosive plays left and right, and 30+ points weekly with it.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Arizona +18 (-110 at Caesars)

While Arizona is a pathetic team, and they’re working on a massive losing streak, 18 points is too many for a home team. Especially against this Washington offense.

I’ve seen projections for this game that make Arizona closer to a 12-point underdog, providing us with a nearly six-point edge.

While Arizona gives up plenty of chunk plays, it’s not like Dylan Morris and the Washington rush game can drive the ball downfield much. They rank 81st in Passing Downs Success Rate and 110th in Offensive Passing Explosiveness.

Because of these two pathetic offenses, points will be at a premium in this game. That’s good news for a massive underdog.

This is why the sharps are all over the Wildcats in this matchup. While only 37% of tickets are on Arizona, more than 60% of the handle is on the home side.

I’m going to follow the sharp money in this matchup, and take the home dog with the points.