2026 NBA Finals MVP Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions & Market Analysis
The NBA is a star-driven league and the best players are almost always the primary reason their team makes it to the NBA Playoffs, NBA Finals or wins a championship.
However, when sportsbooks assign odds for NBA Finals MVP compared to NBA Championship winners, it isn’t necessarily a 1:1 proposition. The difference in odds between the top player to win Finals MVP and the team to win the title can tell you a lot about where the market stands on that player and their team.
This year, reigning Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds the shortest odds, followed by three-time regular season MVP and one-time champion Nikola Jokic. But wait, there’s a newcomer in the middle of the fray, with Victor Wembanyama considered twice as likely as Jokic to lead his team to a title in just his third NBA season.
Then we have Jaylen Brown, the 2024 Finals MVP, and his co-star, Jayson Tatum, at the same price for the Eastern Conference favorite Boston Celtics. Leading stars in the East grab the next few spots and then we get into some of the Robins to the Batmans of the leading candidates.
Here is a list of the leading NBA Finals MVP contenders.
2026 NBA Finals MVP Favorites
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
- Victor Wembanyama (SAO)
- Nikola Jokic (DEN)
- Jaylen Brown (BOS)
- Jayson Tatum (BOS)
- Donovan Mitchell (CLE)
- Cade Cunningham (DET)
- Jalen Brunson (NYK)
- Jalen Williams (OKC)
- James Harden (CLE)
- Kevin Durant (HOU)
- Anthony Edwards (MIN)
2026 NBA Finals MVP Odds & Analysis
After leading his squad to the title at age 26, Gilgeous-Alexander is the chalk atop this market with odds just slightly longer than the Thunder’s short odds to win the title. Jokic has almost the exact same odds to win MVP as the Nuggets have to win the title, and Wembanyama is around the same proposition at 5/1.
Then it gets a bit more convoluted with Tatum and Brown sitting at 12/1 odds, offering more value than the Celtics at +550 to win the championship. The other three lead stars (Donvoan Mitchell, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson) in the East offer slightly more value than their teams.
Once you get down to the longshots, you’re getting a potentially huge return on a small wager if a co-star can out-perform their superstar teammate in the NBA Finals. Maybe an injury to the star opens the door for increased usage, or the matchup dictates a bigger defensive role for the co-star.
We’ve seen it happen before with Kawhi Leonard and Andre Iguodala winning consecutive Finals MVPs in 2014 and 2015 on the strength of their defense. Since then, no player has averaged fewer than 23 PPG, 5 RPG, or 3 APG while winning the award.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
2026 NBA Finals MVP Odds:
Western Conference MVP Odds:
The Thunder are a very young team overall and they have some challenges on offense, so SGA has a massive burden to carry the title favorites in tight postseason series. He stepped up with averages of 29.9 PPG and 6.5 APG in the playoffs last year, and raised his game by averaging 32.7 PPG on 52% shooting in the Finals.
It’s almost impossible to envision another player winning the award if OKC wins the title again. Jalen Williams had some big moments in the Finals last year, but he’s missed a ton of action this season and might not raise his level on the biggest stage. Chet Holmgren is a great defensive player, but can he average nearly 25 PPG to eclipse Shai’s production. The reality is that if SGA doesn’t have a massive postseason, the Thunder aren’t winning the West, or repeating as champions.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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A 7-foot-5 alien with insane game-changing defensive ability, Wembanyama is the primary reason the Spurs blew past their projected win total and finished second in the West at 62-20. He would likely be the primary reason they charge through the Western Conference and make the NBA Finals despite their lack of overall playoff experience. And Wemby would be the biggest reason the Eastern Conference champion struggles in a potential loss to the Spurs.
Wembanyama has hit a bunch of clutch shots this year and posted some dominant offensive performances in addition to his league-best defensive metrics. While he would clearly be the best candidate among the Spurs if they’re able to make a run this year, this team is likely not ready to survive the gauntlet of the Western Conference.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
2026 NBA Finals MVP Odds:
Western Conference MVP Odds:
There is no better value on the board for the NBA title than the Nuggets and that makes Jokic the best value for Finals MVP. He’s likely not going to win regular season MVP despite becoming the first player to lead the league in RPG and APG while posting as many triple doubles (34) as the next three leaders in the league combined. But when the Joker finished second in MVP voting behind Joel Embiid in 2023, he went on an incredible run to clinch the title and win Finals MVP.
Could we see that trend return this year? The Nuggets have a brutal draw in the West with the Wolves, Spurs, and Thunder potentially standing in their way to a Finals appearance. Yet they have as much talent as any of those teams and are healthy at the right time. Jokic can completely change the nature of any series and he would be a nightmare matchup for any Eastern Conference team if his Nuggets emerge from the West.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
2026 NBA Finals MVP Odds:
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It’s somewhat surprising that Brown and Jayson Tatum have the exact same odds to win Finals MVP this year. Perhaps the fact that Brown won both Eastern Conference Finals MVP and Finals MVP over Tatum in 2024 is baked into the price, since voters might want to swing back the other way, yet Tatum has barely played this season and Brown has been one of the most dominant two-way forces in the league all winter.
Brown has improved tremendously since 2024 with a better handle, mid-range game, and more force driving to the basket, and his defense has barely slipped. He might be tasked with guarding the top scorer from the Western Conference champion if Boston makes the Finals and he could still average 25 PPG or better to lead his squad. Brown is the better bet than Tatum for this award.
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
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While the Cavs have routinely disappointed in the playoffs, Mitchell is hardly to blame for those shortcomings. He’s averaged 29.6 PPG in consecutive playoff runs with better efficiency than he posted in his first campaign with Cleveland in the 2022-23 playoffs.
Mitchell is an unstoppable scorer and a relentless competitor. He would certainly deserve the accolade if Cleveland can make it to the NBA Finals, but the reality of that outcome is less likely than these odds would reflect.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
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Cunningham received a health scare late in the season with a collapsed lung and he returned for three games in more of a part-time role. Expecting the big point guard to dominate en route to the NBA Finals is probably unrealistic. The Pistons are a team on the rise, but might not be ready to win three series against the top foes in their conference.
That being said, Jalen Duren is an intriguing longshot in this market at 150/1 or at 40/1 to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP. If Detroit is able to go on a run, it would likely be because their physical style translates to the playoffs this year, and Duren is the enforcer on the interior.
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
2026 NBA Finals MVP Odds:
Eastern Conference MVP Odds:
Here we have a truly intriguing value as the leader of a Knicks team that has been wildly inconsistent this season, but flashed a ceiling to match any foe in their conference. The Knicks could bow out in the first run, or go on a run to the Finals, and most analysts would hardly be surprised with either outcome.
Brunson would have to come up clutch to lead the Knicks anywhere, and he’s done so at every opportunity in the postseason. The shifty point guard has averaged 27.8 PPG, 32.4 PPG, and 29.4 PPG in three playoff runs for the Knicks and he was the biggest reason that his squad led the NBA in fourth-quarter scoring this season. Brunson is clutch and tough to stop, so he might be worth a small wager in this market or in the ECF MVP market.
2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP Odds & Analysis
Brunson and the Knicks could surprise by winning the East without legitimately challenging for the NBA title. They’ve impressed in a couple matchups against the Spurs and Nuggets, but might not hold up over the course of a long series, so Brunson is worth a look at 7/1 to just win ECF MVP. It’s also worth considering OG Anunoby (200/1) as a massive longshot given his defensive prowess and improved offensive game.
The same could be said for most Eastern Conference contenders, even the Boston Celtics. Brown and Tatum are getting 4/1 odds to win ECF MVP compared to 12/1 to win Finals MVP, but it’s worth hedging on that more likely outcome. Tatum won the inaugural Larry Bird trophy in 2022 before Boston lost in the Finals. Brown would still be our preferred option in this market.
2026 Western Conference Finals MVP Odds & Analysis
When it comes to Western Conference Finals MVP, it might be worth going against the grain. The Thunder could return to the Finals with a co-star stepping up in relief of SGA if a familiar foe sells out on the MVP. That makes Chet Holmgren (75/1) or Jalen Williams (35/1) worth consideration.
Jamal Murray is 100/1 to win the award for the Nuggets, but Jokic still offers relative value at 6/1 odds. If the Wolves take down the Nuggets and wind their way through the playoffs, Anthony Edwards could be worth a look at 40/1, but Minnesota has been wildly inconsistent.
Photo Credit: AP/Nate Billings
