2026 NFL MVP Award Player Power Rankings, Odds, Analysis

By Thomas Valentine | Jun 06, 2026, 8:27pm

Team success comes first and foremost for every player in the NFL. A Super Bowl is the end goal, but individual honors still have their place among the league, and there’s no higher individual honor than the NFL’s Most Valuable Player.

There have only been four non-quarterback winners of the award since 2000, and none since Adrian Peterson won the award in 2012. The 2026 NFL MVP Power Rankings are mostly composed of quarterbacks, but who tops the list, and why?

2026 NFL MVP Power Rankings

Josh Allen – QB, BUF
Drake Maye – QB, NWE
Lamar Jackson – QB, BAL
Joe Burrow – QB, CIN
Matt Stafford – QB, LAR
Brock Purdy – QB, SFO
Caleb Williams – QB, CHI
Patrick Mahomes – QB, KNC
Justin Herbert – QB, LAC
Dak Prescott – QB, DAL
Trevor Lawrence – QB, JAC
Jayden Daniels – QB, WSH
Jordan Love – QB, GNB
Jared Goff – QB, DET
Sam Darnold – QB, SEA
Jalen Hurts – QB, PHI
Bo Nix – QB, DEN
Baker Mayfield – QB, TMB
Kyler Murray – QB, MIN
C.J. Stroud – QB, HOU
Cam Ward – QB, TEN
Bijan Robinson – RB, ATL
Jaxson Dart – QB, NYG
Aaron Rodgers – QB, PIT
Tyler Shough – QB, NOR

2026 NFL MVP Betting Odds & Analysis

1. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills, QB)

Heading into his age-30 season, Josh Allen continues to age like fine wine. The former first-round pick had the highest completion rate of his career in 2025 (69.3%) and finished third in MVP voting, behind Matt Stafford and Drake Maye, while throwing for 3668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. As always, Allen was a threat with his legs too, accounting for 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.

With Patrick Mahomes’ performances and numbers slightly dipping in the last couple of years, Allen has started to make up ground on the league’s best quarterback and might even head into the 2026 NFL season as the number one quarterback in the NFL. His case for MVP is as good as any. The Bills will likely be one of the league’s best teams again, with a premier offense led by Allen. The addition of wide receiver D.J. Moore gives Allen a number-one option on the outside to work with, and the Bills’ running game factors into how good he can be. Already a one-time MVP winner, Allen could look to make it two in 2026.

2. Drake Maye (New England Patriots, QB)

Drake Maye’s second season in the NFL was about as good a second season as could be for a quarterback. Maye and the Patriots were outmatched by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, but the former North Carolina quarterback carried the team at times. His 72.0% completion rate led the NFL and was tied for the fifth-highest in NFL history, adding 4394 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Maye also ran for 450 yards and four touchdowns. Maye also led the NFL in total EPA, per Sūmer Sports.

Despite the excellent season, Maye came up short in MVP voting, finishing second to the Rams’ Matt Stafford. The expectation is that the Patriots could struggle against stronger competition—they face the sixth-toughest schedule in 2026—but the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs significantly bolster a receiving room that needed some gumption. Brown is one of the best receivers in the game, and Doubs will be an excellent complement. If Maye continues to ascend into the NFL’s elite tier of quarterbacks, he could challenge for the MVP award in his third season.

3. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens, QB)

One year after the best statistical season of his career, everything that could go wrong went wrong for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. The offense cratered behind a banged-up offensive line, Jackson’s play dipped—and he missed four games through injury—and the team missed the postseason for just the second time since 2018. All of that led to John Harbaugh parting ways with the Ravens in the offseason, with former Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter stepping in to replace him.

Minter brought Declan Doyle with him, the former Bears’ offensive coordinator, with him, and Doyle comes with immense hype, having spent the 2025 season helping design and nurture a breakout offense in Chicago. Jackson’s talent is undeniable, and the Ravens’ offense should be improved with the additions of Vega Ioane and John Simpson to bolster the interior offensive line. If Doyle can get even 80% of the best version of Jackson, the Ravens will be rolling, and Jackson could be on the trail of his third MVP award.

4. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals, QB)

Like the Ravens and Jackson, things were bleak for the Bengals in 2025. Joe Burrow missed nine games with turf toe, and the Bengals fell to 6-11, missing the playoffs for the third successive season. The Bengals were 5-3 with Burrow on the field, and were one of the best offenses in the NFL, but disastrous defensive performances—and losing Burrow for half the season—proved to be a momentum killer.

The dynamic trio of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins is one of, if not the, best quarterback and receiver trio in the league, and their influence will have to be greater than ever if the Bengals are to end their brief playoff drought. Burrow’s 49.31% success rate in 2025 was the seventh-highest among quarterbacks, and though injuries have slowed his momentum in recent seasons, Burrow is still one of the league’s five best quarterbacks. The defense is going to need to play their role in a pivotal year, but expect Burrow to be firing on all cylinders.

5. Matt Stafford (Los Angeles Rams, QB)

After 17 seasons in the NFL, Matt Stafford’s crowning moment—aside from his Super Bowl win in 2021—came in 2025. Stafford was named as the NFL’s MVP after an exceptional season where he completed 65.0% of his passes for a league-leading 4707 yards and 46 touchdowns as the Rams finished with a 12-5 record. The season ended in disappointment for a team that had more Super Bowl aspirations than most, but they’ll be back even stronger in 2026.

Trading for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie puts the defense over the top, and the Rams are the clear favorites for the Super Bowl now. On the offensive side of things, Stafford proved in 2025 that he can still play at an elite level. His connection with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams has been on fire, and with Sean McVay calling plays, Stafford is in an excellent position to chase back-to-back MVP awards, especially if the Rams are as good as we think they’ll be.

6. Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers, QB)

Since entering the NFL, Brock Purdy has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL, and that trend continued into 2025. Though injuries restricted Purdy to just nine games, he was as savvy as ever. His 53.96% success rate led the league, and Purdy was third in EPA per play, per Sūmer Sports. The conversation around Purdy has always been about how much he has been lifted by Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but the exceptional growth in creativity from Purdy in the last two seasons has added a new dimension.

The 49ers put in the legwork to improve Purdy’s offensive ecosystem this offseason, replacing Jauan Jennings with Mike Evans and drafting De’Zhaun Stribling with the 33rd overall pick. Heading into his age-26 season, Purdy thrives in one of the best offensive systems in the league, but continues to add his own flavor. The 2026 season will be his best chance yet at getting into the MVP conversation.

7. Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears, QB)

Caleb Williams’ second season in the NFL was another step closer to the former number one overall pick putting all of the pieces together. The high moments for Williams were insanely high. He’s an excellent athlete with one of the liveliest arms in the league, and his ability to create chaos outside of the pocket came alive, but his 43.8% success rate was also 28th in the NFL, per Sūmer Sports. The positives were frequent, though. Williams dropped his sack rate by six percentage points to 3.79%—fourth-lowest in the league—and continues to turn the ball over at a low rate.

The major catalyst in Williams’ step forward in 2025 was the hiring of Ben Johnson. The former Lions’ offensive coordinator put Williams and the Bears’ offense in an excellent position to succeed in his first season in charge, and completely revitalised a meagre running game. The next step forward for Williams could see him put the pieces together and be a clear top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and if the Bears are hanging around the top of the NFC once again in 2026, Williams might be at the top of the race for MVP.

8. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs, QB)

It might come as a surprise to some to see Patrick Mahomes this far down the list, but the ACL and MCL tears he suffered in the 2025 season play a major factor in his ranking. Mahomes, at his best, is still the NFL’s top quarterback. A two-time MVP, three-time Super Bowl winner, and three-time Super Bowl MVP, at the very least, Mahomes belongs in the pantheon of the best quarterbacks of all time. But his situation in 2026 feels as tentative as ever.

Mahomes expects to be ready for Week 1, but there’s no guarantee that’s possible, regardless of how well his recovery is coming along. Any small hiccups might dissuade Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ brass from pushing Mahomes out there in Week 1. If that happens, any missed time could severely impact his MVP chances. On top of that, the Chiefs’ offense still doesn’t feel like a great supporting cast. However, Mahomes is still in the top 10 because of what happens when he’s on the field. He always finds a way to get the Chiefs over the line. He’s Patrick Mahomes, after all.

9. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers, QB)

The consensus on Justin Herbert is all over the place, but Herbert has proven he has all the talent in the world. The only thing really going against him is playoff success. That could change in 2026 with a couple of lucky bounces. The Chargers need their offensive line to stay healthy and protect Herbert, who was sacked 54 times in 2025—the third-most in the NFL per PFF.

Herbert added rushing yards to his game in 2025. His 498 rushing yards were the second-most among quarterbacks, and though an improved running game with Mike McDaniel calling plays will likely mean Herbert isn’t rushing as much, he could continue to be one of the best passers in the NFL. With that comes potential MVP buzz.

10. Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys, QB)

Dak Prescott is one of the NFL’s last true gunslingers, and the former fourth-round pick continues to play excellent football in his early 30s. Prescott completed 67.3% of his passes for 4552 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2025, earning the fourth Pro Bowl selection of his career even as the Cowboys struggled to a 7-9-1 record. That record bears no reflection on Prescott and the offense. Prescott’s 103.52 passing EPA was fifth among quarterbacks, and the Cowboys’ offense was rolling with Brian Schottenheimer.

The problem was the defense. The Cowboys’ defense was among the worst in the NFL, but a wealth of additions to the unit in the offseason, as well as bringing in Christian Parker as defensive coordinator, means the defense could well hold up its end of the bargain in 2026. If that’s the case, and Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense continue to light teams up, their short playoff drought of two seasons could end, and Prescott could be in the running for MVP honors.

Photo Credit: AP/Jeff Roberson