Get A.J. Brown player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup
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A.J. Brown Player Prop Picks
The Eagles made a massive offseason trade for A.J. Brown and gave him a huge contract extension. The elite wide receiver’s arrival has coincided with Jalen Hurts’s breakout, and he’s been pivotal to the team’s overall success this season. Brown will enter this game in the biggest stage of his career with an opportunity for a statement game.
In this article, I’ll break down some of the player props available for A.J. Brown in this game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks for Brown. You can also find more player prop content on our YouTube channel. Let’s get to work.
A.J. Brown Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
The over on this prop is pretty heavily juiced at this point, and I’m always wary of that in the player props market. You can find it juiced to the over at -155 on DraftKings and as high as -165 on Caesars at the time I’m writing this. You can also find 5.5 receptions on FanDuel at even money.
A.J. Brown has hit over 4.5 receptions in 10 of his 19 games this season, but he’s landed on exactly five catches in five games. In five of his 19 games, he has 6+ catches. Unlike yardage markets where each yard isn’t overly pivotal, every reception means a ton in this player prop market.
Heading into the game last week, I wrote about how DeVonta Smith had out targeted Brown in seven of the team’s prior ten games. However, Brown had eight targets to Smith’s three, and that’s a positive sign for this market. Ultimately, I lean towards the over here but I wouldn’t play it with the juice.
The Verdict: Lean Over 4.5 Receptions
A.J. Brown Over/Under 71.5 Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown has been quiet lately with less than 30 yards in each of his last two games, but this game provides an opportunity for a breakout performance. Brown had 90+ receiving yards in four straight games prior to the playoffs starting, and that threshold is very doable for him here.
The Chiefs play a high rate of man coverage, which plays right into the hands of A.J. Brown. He has averaged 3.25 yards per route run (YPRR) against man coverage compared to 1.86 YPRR against zone coverage. If the Chiefs dare play their inexperienced cornerbacks in one-on-one coverage against Brown, it could be ugly.
Kansas City had a rough season against top wideouts as they allowed 100-yard games to the likes of Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Josh Palmer. They ranked 31st in DVOA against WR1s. As the WR1 for the Chiefs, Brown could be in for a huge game in the Super Bowl.
The Verdict: Lean Over 71.5 Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown Over/Under Longest Reception 25.5 Yards
This is my favorite bet on the board for A.J. Brown. Before the playoffs started, Brown had hit the over on this prop in six straight games to close the season. He wasn’t just barely going over either – he had a 40+ yard reception in four of those six games.
Brown ranked seventh in the NFL with 16.3 yards per reception and was tied for fourth with 32 deep targets (20+ yards downfield). Brown was also tied for the best PFF grade in the NFL on deep targets. By every available metric, he has been an elite downfield receiver this season.
The Chiefs have a league average defense against deep passes per Football Outsiders as they rank 14th in DVOA. However, they’ve allowed a reception of 26+ yards in 17 of their 19 games this season. Jalen Hurts will need to pass throughout this game with a likely neutral game script, and I like Brown to be on the receiving end of a deep throw.
The Verdict: Bet Longest Reception Over 25.5 Yards
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer
With a total of 50.5 points for this game, there’s already good reason to be intrigued by some touchdown scorers. A.J. Brown has been a bit more quiet in the touchdown department lately, though, as he has only scored once in his last six games. There was a stretch earlier this year where he had nine touchdowns across eight games.
A.J. Brown led the Eagles with 15 red zone targets in the regular season, which was 31% of the team’s total. For all of the reasons I mentioned above, this is a great matchup for him against the Chiefs’ man coverage defense with their inexperienced cornerbacks. I like Brown to find the end zone in the Super Bowl.
The Verdict: Lean Yes