Best 2026 NBA Finals Contenders, Sleepers & Longshots Picks
The road to the NBA Finals began April 14 with the Play-in Tournament and the NBA Playoffs continue in full force through May into June.
Instead of the first Thursday of June, the Finals begin on Wednesday, June 3 this year and can run to Friday, June 19 if necessary. There will still be three days between games that require travel, with the higher seed hosting Games 1-2 and Games 5 and 7 as necessary. Games will be broadcast on ABC and available to stream on the ESPN App.
Now that we have the logistics covered, let’s talk about the teams that could compete for the Larry O’Brien Trophy this June.
2026 NBA Finals Futures Market
The Boston Celtics are the consensus favorites in the East with much of their core intact from runs to the Finals in 2022 and a championship run in 2024. The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored in the West and have a chance to become the first team to repeat as champions in seven seasons.
Then you have a group of contenders in each conference, led by the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs in the West, and the Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks in the East.
When it comes to the betting market on these teams, where is the best value to be found?
Best 2026 NBA Finals Contender Pick
Here are the top contenders to win the 2026 NBA Finals.
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Boston Celtics
- San Antonio Spurs
- Denver Nuggets
Oddsmakers have the Thunder as short favorites and the Spurs and Celtics around 5/1 odds at the outset of the playoffs. The Nuggets are getting 11/1 odds or longer along with the Cavs, which is somewhat disrespectful to the top-seeded Pistons (18/1) and a nod to their lack of playoff experience.
Among that group, the Boston Celtics are the best bet to back as NBA champion, with a hedge on the Celtics winning the Eastern Conference (+160). With three of the top four contenders in one conference, it simply makes more sense to back a seasoned team with an easier road to the Finals. The Celtics are better than they were in 2024 per multiple metrics and they have no real weaknesses on either side of the ball.
Best NBA Finals Contender Pick: Boston Celtics
Best 2026 NBA Finals Sleeper Pick
Here are the top sleepers to win the 2026 NBA Finals.
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- New York Knicks
- Houston Rockets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
While the Cavaliers have the same odds as the Nuggets, there is clearly less confidence for this team in the market. This Cavs group has a poor track record in the NBA Playoffs and added notable playoff slumper James Harden.
The Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves have been wildly inconsistent this season and appear to be dealing with some chemistry issues, but perhaps they could peak at the right time? The same could be said for a New York Knicks squad that has some head-scratching losses and some very impressive wins.
We lean toward an Eastern Conference team for a combination of value and likelihood that they could be in position to make the NBA Finals. The New York Knicks are built to win now and built to beat the Celtics in the playoffs again, should those rivals meet in the conference semifinals. With Jalen Brunson at the helm, the Knicks are elite in close games, and they have great defensive flexibility with OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart on the wings. They offer great value at 22/1 to win the title or at 6/1 to win the East.
Best NBA Finals Sleeper Pick: New York Knicks
Best 2026 NBA Finals Longshot Pick
Here are the top longshots to win the 2026 NBA Finals.
- Los Angeles Lakers
The rest of the field has a shot to make a Cinderella run and win the NBA title, but we need a disclaimer that upsets are extremely rare in the NBA Playoffs, and lower seeds rarely win multiple rounds.
It was 21 years ago when the No. 6 Houston Rockets won the title and only one other sixth-seeded team has made the NBA Finals. We’ve had two No. 8 seeds make the Finals out of the East in recent history, the New York Knicks in 1999 and the Miami Heat in 2023, but both of those teams were handily dispatched in 4-1 “Gentleman’s Sweeps.”
Since 1970, every team other than those Rockets to win the title has been seeded first, second, or third in their conference.
There is one longshot being lumped into this group due to extenuating circumstances. The Los Angeles Lakers were in position to easily lock up the No. 3 seed before Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) suffered injuries down the stretch. Reaves might not return in the first round, but Doncic could be back sooner than expected, and he’s a proven playoff killer with a Western Conference Finals MVP under his belt. Add in LeBron James and his war chest of playoff experience, and J.J. Redick’s creative defensive schemes, and you have a No. 4 seed that is dangerous enough to threaten the top seeds in the West, and offer value on a small wager at 200/1 to win the title.
Best NBA Finals Longshot Pick: Los Angeles Lakers
Photo Credit: AP/Steven Senne
