Best Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Parlay, Odds Today: MLB HR Bets (Friday, September 12)
Let’s get ready for another full slate of home run predictions for Sep. 12. We had another profitable day on Wednesday, as Mookie Betts went yard against the Rockies. Let’s have another winning night tonight.
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Friday, Sep. 12)
Christian Yelich Odds For MLB HR Picks:
The first of my home run predictions focuses on Brewers’ veteran outfielder Christian Yelich, who is slashing .267/.348/.460 with 27 home runs in 578 plate appearances this season.
Yelich has one homer in his last six games, but I like taking a shot on him against the Cardinals tonight.
That’s because he’ll be going up against right-hander Andre Pallante. Not only has Pallante given up 1.21 HR/9 against lefties like Yelich, but there’s also good batter-vs-pitcher data here. In 10 career at-bats against Pallante, Yelich has one home run with a .543 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll take a chance on Yelich to go yard for the 28th time tonight.
Byron Buxton Odds For MLB HR Picks:
Up next, we’re going with Twins’ outfielder Byron Buxton, who is slashing .275/.337/.568 with 31 home runs in 475 plate appearances.
This includes excellent batted ball metrics, as highlighted by an impressive 18.5% barrel rate.
Buxton continues to crush the ball as well, hitting two homers in his last three games.
You also have to like tonight’s matchup against Diamondbacks’ righty Brandon Pfaadt, who has given up a 1.29 HR/9 and 11.0% barrel rate this season.
Add in the fact that Buxton has one home run in three career at-bats vs Pfaadt, and you can see why this is an appealing wager. With that in mind, ride with Buxton to hit No. 32 tonight.
Jo Adell Odds For MLB HR Picks:
For my final pick, I’m going with the Angels’ breakout outfielder in Jo Adell, who carries a .242/.302/.504 slash line with 35 home runs in 516 plate appearances.
We’ve seen Adell absolutely crush the ball this season, featuring an elite 17.8% barrel rate.
Tonight’s matchup is against Luis Castillo, whom Adell has had success against, homering twice in seven career at-bats.
With Adell’s power numbers and batted ball metrics combined with strong batter-vs-pitcher data, this looks like a great time to ride with the Angels’ outfielder.
MLB Parlay For My Home Run Predictions
Over at DraftKings, a three-leg homer parlay with Yelich, Buxton, and Adell generates +8540 odds. By converting that to implied probability, there’s a 1.2% chance this longshot wager cashes in.
Given the extreme volatility with homers, I recommend only wagering couch change on this longshot parlay. Always bet responsibly, and good luck with your home run predictions!
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