Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, April 9, 2026
We missed on James Wood and Riley Greene on Wednesday, while William Contreras had the day off. The cold streak continues, so it’s time to alter our approach a bit. We’re ignoring batter-vs-pitcher data and recent performance. The focus is on exploiting pitchers, allowing high barrel rates and targeting specific pitches that have yielded hard contact.
Today, we’re going with Colt Keith, Salvador Perez, and Eugenio Suarez. Each of these hitters are in good spots to go yard today, especially when you consider their prices.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-31 (-1.31 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, April 9
Colt Keith Home Run Odds
Colt Keith came into Wednesday’s action with a .353/.389/.500 slash with zero home runs in 36 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics look fantastic, including a 56% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile) and .498 expected slugging percentage (84th percentile).
As a left-handed bat, Keith is better against righties (108 wRC+) than southpaws (74 wRC+). That’s good news because he’ll be facing a right-hander in Mick Abel.
Abel has done a good job limiting hard contact so far this year (zero home runs allowed), but he’s had issues with the long ball in the past (1.85 HR/9 last season). The 24-year-old righty has given up a career 2.63 HR/9 to lefties and 0.40 HR/9 to righties, which bodes well for Keith.
We’ve also seen Abel’s fastball get crushed this season. Hitters have a .489 xwOBA against the pitch this season. That means that they’re generating a lot of hard contact against the pitch. Abel throws his four-seamer 47.3% of the time, so Keith should see this pitch often.
What I like about taking Keith here is that he’s crushed fastballs this season, putting up .405 xwOBA against the pitch.
With that in mind, we’ll take a chance on Keith homering for the first time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Salvador Perez Home Run Odds
Coming into Wednesday, Salvador Perez was slashing .171/.244/.366 with two home runs in 45 plate appearances. If we look beyond the underwhelming surface stats, we see that Perez is hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by his 16.7% barrel rate, which ranks in the 86th percentile.
The veteran catcher has a career .200 ISO against lefties, and he’ll get one in Anthony Kay. The White Sox southpaw has struggled so far this year, allowing a 10.3% barrel rate, which ranks in the 34th percentile.
The worst pitch for Kay so far has been his four-seamer. Hitters have crushed the pitch, putting up a .547 xwOBA. Guess what pitch Perez has hit hard this year? He’s putting up a .451 xwOBA vs. four-seamers this season.
Then you have to consider that this game will be played at Kauffman Stadium, where they moved the fences in to help produce more home runs.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll take a chance on Perez to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
Eugenio Suarez Home Run Odds
Eugenio Suarez entered play on Wednesday with a .195/.250/.341 slash with two home runs in 44 plate appearances. While it’s beena. slow start, he’s still hitting the ball hard with an 11.5% barrel rate (70th percentile).
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Marlins right-hander Max Meyer, who has given up a 14.3% barrel rate this season (17th percentile).
Meyer has allowed a 2.24 HR/9 against righties like Suarez throughout his career, so he’s clearly had an issue with the longball.
This season, hitters have a .380 xwOBA against Meyer’s fastball (.457 xwOBA in 2025). Suarez has a .389 xwOBA against fastballs, so he’s hit them hard.
To make it even better, we’re getting terrific odds on this 40-home run caliber hitter. Risk 0.1 units.
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