Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, April 7, 2026
After missing on Jake Bauers and J.T. Realmuto, it continues to be an ice-cold stretch for home run props. This reflects how volatile this market can be, which is why we only risk 0.1 units on each play.
Today, we’re riding with Ben Rice, Andy Pages, and Drake Baldwin. Since we’ve been struggling of late, we’re going to include hitters priced at shorter than +500 odds this time.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
Click any odds below to place a wager. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-26 (-0.81 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, April 7
Ben Rice Home Run Odds
Ben Rice is currently slashing .370/.528/.852 with three home runs in eight games. The numbers look even better against right-handed pitching: .391/.548/.957. Add in the fact that this game is at Yankee Stadium, where the short porch in right field is great for left-handed hitters, and there’s a lot to like about Rice tonight.
The matchup looks good as well, as Rice will be going up against Athletics’ right-hander Aaron Civale. According to Baseball Savant, Civale currently ranks in the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate. Last season, Civale was in the 23rd percentile in barrel rate. In other words, he gives up a lot of hard contact, which bodes well for Rice.
We’ve also seen Rice heating up even more lately, homering three times in his last four games.
So, here we have a red-hot hitter with an exploitable matchup in a favorable environment. Sign me up for 0.1 units.
Andy Pages Home Run Odds
Andy Pages is off to a terrific start this season, as highlighted by a .474/.500/.789 slash with three home runs in 10 games. Like Rice, Pages is another lefty who performs much better vs. righties: .556/.571/.963 with three homers so far this year. The batted ball metrics look great for Pages as well, including a 51.9% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 79th percentile.
While the matchup against Kevin Gausman looks tough on paper, the veteran righty can give up a lot of hard contact at times. Last season, Gausman allowed an 8.5% barrel rate, which ranked in the 47th percentile. So far this year, that number is at 10.5% (36th percentile).
With Pages coming in hot, homering twice in his last four games, it makes a lot of sense to take the plunge here, especially with a price at nearly +500 odds. Risk 0.1 units.
Drake Baldwin Home Run Odds
We’ll finish off Tuesday’s home run props with yet another red-hot hitter. Drake Baldwin has been scorching the ball this season, slashing .318/.388/.682 with five home runs in 11 games, including one last night. The batted ball metrics look fantastic, including a 17.9% barrel rate (90th percentile). Baldwin is also showing phenomenal bat speed, ranking in the 94th percentile.
The matchup against Yusei Kikuchi is a good one. The veteran lefty has given up a 45.7% hard-hit rate (32nd percentile). Last season, Kikuchi allowed a 9.4% barrel rate (30th percentile). As a left-handed pitcher, Kikuchi is worse against righties like Baldwin, giving up 1.47 HR/9 last season (0.24 HR/9 vs. righties).
That’s great news for Baldwin, who has a .667 slugging percentage against right-handers this year.
With how red-hot Baldwin has been at the plate, it’s hard to pass up riding with him here. We’ll risk 0.1 units on this one.
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