The Big 12’s final four did battle Friday, and when the smoke cleared, Houston and Arizona, the No. 5 and No. 2 seeds entering the tournament, were the last two teams standing. The Cougars and Wildcats traveled drastically different paths to the title game. Arizona punched its ticket first, recording a thrilling 82–80 victory over Iowa State with a bucket at the buzzer by Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley. Anthony Dell’Orsoled Arizona with 26 points off the bench, helping offset the Cylcones’ Milan Momcilovic’s prolific 28–point effort, which included eight three–pointers.
Houston then cruised to victory in the nightcap while leveraging its elite defense. The Cougars recorded a 69–47 victory, pulling away over the final 20 minutes after jumping out to a 33–25 halftime lead. Kelvin Sampson’s squad held Iowa State to a minuscule 25% success rate from the floor, while the Cougars drained an impressive 56% of their attempts from downtown.
For each of the tournament’s five days,Lineups.comwill provide a betting preview for the day’s games, along with a best bet. Saturday’s championship game naturally brings this year’s Big 12 tournament to a close and affords the winner plenty of momentum heading into March Madness. Without further ado, let’s dive into Saturday’s championship game.
The fact the Cougars and Wildcats will battle for Big 12 supremacy is fitting, considering the type of seasons both teams have put together. Houston is 28–5, including 14–4 in conference play, after winning each of its last five contests, including its tournament wins against BYU and Kansas.
Meanwhile, Arizona has won eight straight, the last two being tournament victories. The Wildcats are now 31–2, including 16–2 against Big 12 opponents, and have scored at least 81 points in five of their last six games. Besides Bradley’s exploits, Arizonahas benefited from Brayden Burries’ and Koa Peat’s efficiency, rebounding and defense. The two teams’ one prior meeting this season came Feb. 21 on the Cougars’ Fertitta Center home floor, when the Wildcats recorded a 73–66 victory.
Arizona’s defense was the superior one that day, limiting Houston to 36% shooting and Emanuel Sharp to 14 points on 2–for–11 shooting.
Meanwhile, Dell’Orso paced the Wildcats in that game as well, delivering 22 points off the bench on 8-for-14 shooting. Bradley and Ivan Kharchenkov served as key complementary sources of offense, chipping in 17 and 16 points, respectively. The line is unsurprisingly a tight one, as the Wildcats have been installed as 2.5-to-3-point favorites. Meanwhile, the projected total is modest as well, with the number set between 137.5 and 138 points.
Houston vs. Arizona Game Odds
Big 12 Conference Tournament Betting Pick
The Cougars have one clear statistical advantage going into Saturday’s title showdown, that being defense. Houston is now No. 2 in the country with 62.4 points per game allowed, but Arizona appears to be superior in essentially ever other aspect. The Wildcats boast a formidable defense in their own right and actually limited opponent to a lower shooting percentage (39.0) than Houston (39.8).
Meanwhile, the Wildcats were much more consistent on the offensive end, averaging 86.5 points per game while shooting a crisp 50%. Then, Arizona has also been more effective on the glass, averaging 43.1 rebounds per contest to Houston’s 36.5. The Wildcatsalso rank in the top five in offensive rebounding percentage (38.3%), a particularly relevant stat when considering how many missed shots the Cougars can typically force.
While Houston’s defense will undoubtedly make Arizona work for every point, I envision a similar scenario to the regular–season meeting between the teams. The Wildcats aren’t likely to record as big a victory, but the 2.5–point spread is certainly manageable for a team that’s 18–14–1 ATS since the start of the regular season.
Juan Carlos Blanco has been writing about fantasy sports and sports betting for over a decade, crafting a wide range of articles including those focused on picks, industry news and analysis, and personality profiles of others in those spaces.
Juan Carlos’ work has appeared on leading sports, fantasy sports and sports betting sites including RotoWire, RotoBaller, The Gameday, TheLines.com, Legal Sports Report, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, NBA.com, Pro Football and Sports Network, Forbes and Lineups.
Juan Carlos has covered an extensive number of sports leagues, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, CFL, USFL, XFL, UFL and BIG3 Basketball.
