Big 12 Conference Tournament Preview for Games on Thursday, March 12, 2026
The Big 12 tournament continued Wednesday with an eventful second round that was a true mixed bag. The two blowout victories were offset nicely by a pair of exciting wire-to-wire battles, including the first overtime of the opening two rounds.
Defending tournament champ Iowa State decimated Arizona State to start the day, recording a massive 91-42 victory in which three players scored at least 17 points and the Cylclones outshot the Sun Devils by a 50.8% – 31.9% margin. Then, the Bearcats and Knights made up for it with a hard-fought battle that took three periods to complete, with UCF mounting a successful comeback after being eight points down with 2:17 remaining in regulation and then squeaking by in the extra period.
The lopsided results returned in the third game of the day, as the typically prolific BYU Cougars flashed some defensive chops in a 68-48 victory against an overmatched West Virginia team. AJ Dybantsa put together a second consecutive impressive tournament performance, leading the way with 27 points and adding seven rebounds and three assists.
The pendulum swung back in the nightcap, as TCU recorded a 95-88 victory against a feisty Oklahoma State squad that had a 46-43 halftime lead but labored in the second half as the Horned Frogs roared to victory with a 52-42 advantage in the final 20 minutes.
For each of the tournament’s five days, Lineups.com will provide a betting preview for the day’s games, along with a best bet. Thursday’s four-game slate sees the top four seeds in the tournament – Arizona, Houston, Kansas and Texas Tech – finally take the floor while enjoying significant rest advantages.
Without further ado, let’s dive into Thursday’s quarterfinal-round matchups:
Contents
Thursday’s Big 12 Conference Tournament Schedule
- Texas Tech vs. Iowa State – 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- UCF vs. Arizona – 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- BYU vs. Houston – 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
- TCU vs. Kansas – 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
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Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Preview
Texas Tech finished off what was otherwise a highly successful regular season with back-to-back losses, but the Red Raiders still forged a 22-9 record partly comprised by a 12-6 tally in conference play. Texas Tech was led for much of the season by the impressive JT Toppin–Christian Anderson 1-2 punch, with the junior/sophomore combo averaging 21.8 and 19.2 points, respectively. However, Toppin was lost to a torn ACL in a Feb. 17 game against ASU, placing more responsibility on the rest of the squad.
Grant McCasland, who ushered Texas Tech to a Sweet 16 appearance last spring, now leads his charges into battle against a Cyclones squad they toppled by an 82-73 score on Feb. 28, a game where the Raiders shot 58%, including 48% from three-point range. With Toppin already sidelined, Donovan Atwell paced the team with 18 points, while Anderson followed closely behind with 14.
Despite the ease of Iowa State’s win Wednesday, three starters still logged at least 30 minutes, while another, Blake Buchanan, played 25. Therefore, there’s still a rest advantage at play for Texas Tech, which could help its defense’s cause at least slightly against a team that clearly can put points on the board. The Raiders ranked a so-so 121st in points per game allowed during the regular season (72.5 PPG).
Despite the back-to-back, it’s Iowa State that’s a solid 5.5-point favorite for Thursday’s opener.
Arizona vs. UCF Preview
The Arizona Wildcats were perfect for the first 20 games of their 2025-26 season, and they finished with a stellar 29-2 mark that included victories in 16 of 18 conference games. As those numbers indicate, Arizona excelled on both ends of the floor, averaging 86.7 points per game (No. 12) and surrendering a modest 68.6 per contest (No. 45). Tommy Lloyd’s squad also shot 50% as a team and tallied 43 rebounds per game, making them a relatively bulletproof opponent.
The Wildcats moved to 18-0 when they upended the Knights in their one regular-season meeting by an 84-77 score on Jan. 17. The stat sheet was emblematic of Arizona’s well-rounded approach, as the Wildcats shot a blistering 53% overall while limiting UCF, which was a talented offensive squad throughout the season in its own right, to just a 40% success rate from the floor.
As already mentioned, UCF had to put in some serious work to advance Wednesday. No starter played less than 31 minutes against Cincinnati, and three logged at least 35 minutes of floor time. Arizona already walks into the matchup with a notable defensive advantage, and they undoubtedly will be the more collectively rested group. The Knights will also have to prove they consistently have an answer for the talented guard duo of Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley, who were very efficient all season and hung 18 and 23 points, respectively, on UCF in the regular season.
The Wildcats are unsurprisingly the biggest favorites of the day, with the line sitting at between 15.5 and 16.5 points early Thursday.
Arizona vs. UCF Odds
Houston vs. BYU Preview
The No. 2-seeded Houston Cougars come into Thursday’s tournament debut having prevailed in 26 of 31 regular-season contests, including a three-game winning streak to wrap up their schedule. Kelvin Sampson’s team also managed to prevail in 14 of 18 Big 12 games, and they continued a recent trend of standout Cougars defenses. Houston ranked No. 3 in the country by allowing only 62.7 points per game on stingy 40.3% shooting.
Even one of the sharpshooting Dybantsa’s signature performances couldn’t get BYU over the hump against that stalwart defense when the two teams clashed in the regular season, as Houston prevailed by a 77-66 score in Provo on Feb. 7. The nation’s leading scorer did rack up 28 points on 9-for-14 shooting, but the rest of the team could only drain 30.8% of its attempts.
In Wednesday’s 20-point victory, BYU still needed at least 35 minutes from three starters, including a whopping 39 from Dybantsa after he’d logged 37 in Tuesday’s tournament-opening victory against Kansas State. That could well leave the star forward with plenty of fatigue and heavy legs for his third game in three days, and the same may well hold true for most of his other teammates to varying degree.
Houston checks in as a solid 8.5-9.5-point favorite, which is understandable given the caliber of its defense and the massive rest edge.
Houston vs. BYU Game Odds
Kansas vs. TCU Game Preview
The Kansas Jayhawks will close out the tournament’s third night as the No. 3 seed, following a 22-9 regular-season that also saw them go 12-6 against Big 12 opponents. Bill Self’s crew wasn’t elite on either end of the floor, but they certainly held their own. The Jayhawks’ 76.5 points per game ranked 134th, while their average of 69.3 points per game allowed checked in a markedly more impressive 53rd.
When the two teams faced off in the regular season on Jan. 6, the Jayhawks did come out on top, but they had to work for every point. Kansas ultimately prevailed by a 104-100 score in overtime, squandering a five-point halftime lead, coming back from a 16-point second-half deficit, and then needing 17 points in the extra period to come out on top. Top-3 NBA prospect Darryn Peterson’s 32 points led the way for the ‘Hawks, and both defenses endured their fair share of struggles.
TCU overperformed offensively in their Wednesday night win over OK State and had four players – including three starters – play at least 28 minutes in the hard-fought victory. Sophomore forward David Punch put the team on his shoulders with 26 points in 34 minutes, and the big man will undoubtedly be leaned on heavily again Thursday. He just missed a double-double (20 points, nine rebounds) in the regular-season loss to the Jayhawks, but the Frogs will likely need another very balanced and efficient effort the likes of Wednesday’s to have a chance to stay with Kansas for 40 minutes.
Oddsmakers are giving TCU plenty of respect, however, with Kansas a relatively modest 5.5-point favorite.
Kansas vs. TCU Game Odds
Big 12 Conference Tournament Betting Pick
As alluded to earlier, the biggest rest disparity of the day Thursday will be found in the BYU-Houston matchup. While BYU will be playing its third game in 72 hours, Houston will take the floor for the first time since Friday. At the end of a long season, that type of imbalance could particularly manifest in the second half.
Houston’s elite defense could also exacerbate the difference in energy levels. Then, Sampson’s group can also put some points on the board, and with BYU already yielding 75.4 points per game, a rested Houston collection of scorers led by Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp could get their fair share of open looks.
There’s no questioning Dybsanta’s ability to take over a game, but I’m a firm believer he may simply run out of gas down the stretch Thursday. As such, even with a fairly large spread, I’m in the camp of a Houston cover.
Bet Bet: Houston (1 unit)
Big 12 Conference Tournament Betting Tracker
- Record: 2-0
- Units: +2.0
