Bills’ Trade for DJ Moore Moves Buffalo to AFC East Favorite

The NFL offseason trades don’t appear to be slowing down as the Buffalo Bills made a deal to acquire wide receiver D.J. Moore from the Chicago Bears. The full trade details include the Bills sending a second-round pick to the Bears for Moore, along with a fifth-round pick. 

These moves come after multiple seasons in which fans and analysts wondered when Buffalo would finally make a move to acquire a legitimate No. 1-caliber receiver. With this move, how will it impact both teams’ offenses? Will the Bears go after a receiver in the draft or free agency? How does this impact the AFC East and related betting markets?

How This Move Impacts Both Offenses

Any time a receiver of Moore’s caliber changes teams, it’ll certainly impact the offense he’s arriving at, and the one he’s leaving. The Bears will be able to withstand it, though. This move signals their confidence in second-year wide receiver Luther Burden III to step up, along with additional help from tight end Colston Loveland. 

This past season, Moore had a 16% target share on the team, ranking second behind Rome Odunze. From Week 10 through the end of the regular season, Burden III saw more action with Odunze going down, resulting in a 16.2% target share compared to Moore’s 14.7%. 

There was a bottleneck at the receiver position, and this allows the Bears to get another player in the draft or free agency to serve as a WR3 and be paid accordingly. As for the Bills, this is massive. 

Their top receiver last season was Khalil Shakir, who drew a 19.8% target share while catching 72 passes for 719 yards and four touchdowns. 

The Bills were hoping to get more out of fellow wide receiver Keon Coleman, but that simply didn’t materialize. In fact, he was a healthy scratch on multiple occasions and doesn’t seem ready for his role yet. This trade allows Coleman to become a less reliable option for them and for him to assume a true WR1 role. 

Shakir operates closer to the line of scrimmage. Of his targets, over 80% of them were either behind the line of scrimmage or just 0-9 yards downfield. Meanwhile, Moore saw 53.8% of his targets come on throws 10-plus yards downfield. On those throws, Allen had 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. That was without a target like Moore, who’s had success there. 

This move provides Allen with more options at all levels of the field, led with Shakir closer to the line of scrimmage and Moore being open more over the intermediate levels and stretching defenses. 

Do The Bears Add Another Receiver? 

With Moore departing and Odunze and Burden III stepping into those WR1/2 roles, the Bears could look to add another receiver. They could opt to bring back Olamide Zaccheaus, who’s set to be a free agent and could fit that mold well. There’s another name that Bears head coach Ben Johnson is familiar with due to his time as the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions – Kalif Raymond. 

His speed could play a role for them, and he had some solid seasons with Johnson as the offensive coordinator highlighted by his 2022 season with 47 catches and 616 yards. They don’t have a ton of draft picks, so addressing WR3 in free agency with a familiar name seems likely – be it bringing back Zaccheaus or Raymond. 

Does This Push The Bills Over The Line as AFC East Favorites?

Following this move, the Bills went from being tied with the New England Patriots at +130 co-favorites to now being the outright favorite at -135. The Patriots fell to just +135 at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

This also comes on the heels of the Patriots releasing their top receiver, Stefon Diggs. Moore is coming off a down season, but that was more so a product of a crowded receiver room and not a great fit for Johnson’s offense. 

Before 2025, though, Moore had been great with four 1,100-yard seasons over his last six. Moore will add a downfield presence that will unlock another facet of Allen’s game at a level he hasn’t had yet. 

As for the Patriots, don’t sell them yet. They do have some questions to answer though, including at receiver, offensive line, and pass rush. Today, the lean is towards the Bills but can quickly change based on free agency and the draft. 

Does This Move Make Josh Allen the MVP?

We know what he can do with his legs after running for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns a season ago, and now, expect his passing performance to only improve. He’s had under 30 passing touchdowns each of the last three seasons, but expect that to change with the varying types of receivers he has now with Shakir and Moore. 

That said, it shouldn’t be it for the Bills. They could still stand to add a bit more firepower, but with Moore as his top receiver paired with his rushing ability, it’s hard to argue against Allen as the MVP. 

He finished third in MVP voting last season behind Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford.

Updated Win Totals For Each Team

Buffalo Bills:
Chicago Bears:

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Bills Over/Under on wins at 10.5 and the Bears at 9.5. The Bills finished 12-5 last season, while the Bears had 11 wins. 

The Over is a solid look for both teams. The Bills will only get better with Moore in this offense along with whatever moves they make in free agency and the NFL Draft. That has to include adding some help defensively, including along the line with impending free agents like Joey Bosa, Larry Ogunjobi, Matt Milano, A.J. Epenesa, and more. 

As for the Bears, Moore wasn’t a totally crucial part of their offense last year, though he did make some unbelievably clutch catches in games when it mattered. The conviction to win is there for both teams to in 2026.