The hits keep coming for the Buccaneers as they’re facing Patrick Mahomes one week after Aaron Rodgers while their roster is dealing with turmoil due to injuries. The Chiefs have taken their lumps as they’re working on life after Tyreek Hill, and neither of these offenses are quite as high-octane as we’ve seen in the past. Still, there can be value in building a Same Game Parlay for this game.
For this Sunday Night Football game, I wanted to present two alternative options, one that supports each team winning. Correlation is important for SGPs, and there are a couple of different ways we can see this game play out. Therefore, I’m building one SGP for each team. Let’s go to work.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Week 4 Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay: Chiefs Version
For our Chiefs version of the Same Game Parlay, we’re starting by adding their Moneyline to the SGP. You can get that at -102 odds on FanDuel at the moment, and I have the Chiefs -1.5 as one of my best bets for the week. While the line has moved in the opposite direction, I still have more confidence in Kansas City’s offensive production to this point. I also believe Chris Jones will put a hurting on Tampa’s inexperienced interior offensive line.
To start our SGP, let’s target Travis Kelce. In three career games against the Buccaneers, Kelce has averaged 8.3 catches for 107.6 yards per game. While he hasn’t scored in any of those games, he has scored twice already this season and should have had two last week. For this SGP, we’ll include his touchdown prop at +100 and his yardage prop over 67.5 at -130.
Finally, to round out our Chiefs-centered parlay, I like adding Patrick Mahomes over 15.5 rushing yards. The Buccaneers have run two-high safety looks at a very high rate this season, and it’s helped them limit big plays as they have allowed opposing passers to complete just 15.9% of passes 15+ yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league. With the deep ball less of an option, Mahomes will look to run like he did last week as he racked up 26 yards on the ground.
With those props put together, we have an enticing four-leg SGP surrounding the Chiefs finding success in this game:
- Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-102)
- Travis Kelce Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
Full Chiefs SGP Odds: +728 ($10 wins $72.83)
NFL Week 4 Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers Version
For the Buccaneers version of the SGP, we’ll start by adding their Moneyline at -116. It appears as though the Tampa Bay offense will be the healthiest its been all season this week, and that should allow them to maximize their drives more than they’ve been able to thus far. With a defense that ranks first in DVOA, first in EPA, and second in PFF grades, they could ride an efficient offense and elite defense to a win.
In my player props article for this game, I wrote about how the narrative is strong for Mike Evans to have a big game after being suspended last week on the heels of his fight with Marshon Lattimore. Evans will be eager to be back on the field and help his team succeed. I took his receiving yardage prop and his touchdown prop in the player props article, and I’ll add both to our SGP here.
For this SGP, I’ll also take Tom Brady’s passing prop at 263.5 yards. While I’m not projecting him to have a massive game, the return to health of key weapons is significant and the correlation is strong with the Mike Evans props and the Buccaneers’ Moneyline. He had 271 passing yards last week against a very good Green Bay secondary down essentially all of his weapons, so you’re arguably getting very good value here.
While I’m on the Chiefs in this game, getting a small amount on the Bucs in the form of a SGP can give you a correlative hedge against any Kansas City bet. With those props put together, we have an enticing four-leg play:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (-116)
- Mike Evans Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
- Tom Brady Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Full Buccaneers SGP Odds: +661 ($10 wins $66.15)