Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 SGP Picks & Predictions: Expect Jimmy Butler to Continue His Cold Streak from 3

By Kody Malstrom | Jun 22, 2023, 11:37am

Other than game two, it’s been a dominant Denver Nuggets performance as they have won every game by double digits. Game four was no different as they controlled the pace from start to finish. The duo of Jokic and Murray have been lethal, yet it was the Nuggets bench production that has really stepped up with Bruce Brown and Christian Braun giving them a jolt of energy. They now get a chance to lift the trophy in a gentleman’s sweep on their own home court in game five. Ahead of this win-or-go-home Game 5 for the Heat, let’s dive into some best bets for both teams.

Heat vs Nuggets SGP Best Bets

With the NBA action dwindling down to a game a night with the start of the NBA Finals, let’s dive deep into the matchup and muster up a SGP of how I think the game script will go. Miami’s backs are firmly pressed on the wall as they need to win out the rest of the series after going down 1-3. They have scrambled to find answers on how to slow down the Nuggets offense, as well as dealing with their own shooting regression. This spells disaster for their chances of making a comeback as the Nuggets look to finish this out at home.

Denver Nuggets First Half Winner/Full Time Winner Parlay

Backing them in a more exotic market, I am taking the Nuggets in a three-way prop for them to lead after the first half and finish out the game as a winner as well. Since it’s in a three-way market, that means a first half tie results in a loss.

The reasoning for this is simple, the Heat have simply not found any success in slowing down the Nuggets. Other than an offensive explosion in game two, as well as a cold shooting night from the Nuggets secondary scorers, Denver has dominated this series off the backs of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

Expect more of the same as they continue to run a lethal two-man game off the top of the perimeter. Playing with or without the ball, Jamal Murray starts the offense rubbing off of Jokic’s screen in an attempt to create space for a drive or pull up three. Basing his decision off his own defenders’ response in coverage, Jokic is given the opportunity to crash down for a high-quality look at the rim should he get his defender on his hip. A scheme that continues to find success.

Jamal Murray 8+ Assists

With Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic shouldering more of a load on offense, this has given Murray an uptick in potential assist opportunities. Markets have been asleep at the wheel in setting this market in games two through four yet have finally decided to apply the pressure by making 8.5 the new universal number.

While I still like Murray’s chances of exceeding the new standard, I will swallow some of the juice by attacking the “To Record 8+ Assists” markets. Expecting the Nuggets to run the same type of offense with Murray and Jokic running the two-man game, Murray will get his choice of hitting the big man in stride or a shooter on the perimeter with his own playmaking abilities when he attacks the middle.

Jimmy Butler u1.5 Threes

Another game in the series has come and gone and this prop cashes once again as Butler is a liability from deep. He gave us a scare by connecting from deep early on in the contest, but he settled for only one more attempt in the second half and finished game four shooting 1-3.

I was surprised when books universally hung 1.5 as they have had a tendency to tick it back down to 0.5 when Butler has a “cold” perimeter shooting night. With 1.5 once again being widely available, I will continue to ride this prop as it has been a money maker for our SGP’s.

Nikola Jokic Alt Assists u10.5

It’s never settling on the stomach to take a Jokic under prop, but that is exactly how we are rounding out this SGP as he has taken on a heavier burden in the scoring department.

With Jokic feasting on the undersized Heat interior defense with his soft touch near the rim, this has limited his amount of potential assists opportunities. It also helps that the Nuggets sharpshooters have gone cold from deep throughout the finals, directly affecting Nikola’s number of assists as they are the recipients of his passes.

SGP Betting Card

Denver Nuggets First Half Winner/Full Time Winner Parlay
Jamal Murray 8+ Assists
Jimmy Butler u1.5 Threes
Nikola Jokic Alt Assists u10.5

Full SGP Odds: +410 ($10 wins $41.00)

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.