Illinois, Michigan Open as Final Four Favorites for Saturday’s Games
The Elite Eight matchups unfolded in mostly anti-climatic fashion over the weekend – with one notable exception – and when the dust cleared, Illinois, Arizona, Michigan and UConn were left standing for the Final Four.
While the Fighting Illini, Wildcats and Wolverines all recorded double-digit victories — led by Michigan’s 33-point throttling of Tennessee — the Huskies authored a buzzer-beating win for the ages when Braylon Mullins’ last-second three-pointer crushed the spirit of Cameron Boozer and the Blue Devils in a 73-72 win for UConn.
National Championship Odds Entering Final Four
Michigan Favorites Over Arizona and to Win National Championship
As just alluded to, the Wolverines were the most dominant team in the Elite Eight. Sunday’s 95-62 thumping of the Volunteers saw star senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg put together another impressive performance, as he finished with 27 points, seven rebounds, four assists, two blocks and one steal. Four other Wolverines also scored in double digits, and Michigan shot 52% overall while limiting Tennessee to a 32% success rate from the floor, including an anemic 19% figure from behind the arc.
Michigan is now 35-3 since the start of the regular season, and Dusty May’s squad has won its four tournament games to date by a robust average of 22.5 points. The Wolverines rank No. 8 in scoring with 87.5 points per game (on 51.1% shooting), but they’re a bit less dominating on the defensive end as far as scoring suppression in concerned (69.8 PPG allowed). Nevertheless, Michigan is still allowing just 38.6% shooting; therefore, the 36-2 Wildcats, who are No. 12 in their own right with 86.5 points per game on 50.3% shooting and have five players averaging double-digit points, could certainly pose a stiff test.
Is Michigan a Good Pick to Win the Men’s College Basketball National Championship?
The Wolverines are odds-on favorites to win this year’s national title for good reason. As already noted, Michigan pairs an elite offense with opportunistic defense that sometimes bends but makes the opposition work for every point. The Wolverines are also now second in the nation in blocks (6.1 per game), with 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara leading the team with 2.6 rejections per contest. Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Elliot Cadeau are three other starters that are significant offensive contributors, and Michigan also boasts a deep bench led by Trey McKenney (9.8 PPG, 38.4% three-point shooting).
The Wolverines are very narrow favorites against Arizona , and although the Wolverines are likely the more complete team, a high-stakes clash between two teams this closely matched is always challenging to prognosticate. However, an Over on the total of 157.5 points is certainly in play, given the offensive talent on either side.
Illinois Favorites Over UConn in Final Four
Illinois’ impressive run through the tournament continued Saturday, when the Fighting Illini roared back from a 32-28 halftime deficit against Iowa to outscore the Hawkeyes by a 43-27 margin over the final 20 minutes in a 71-59 victory. Freshman Keaton Wagler continued his impactful March Madness run with a team-high 25 points, adding three assists, two rebounds and one steal. Each of Illinois’ four tournament wins have come by at least 10 points, and their average margin of victory in those contests stands at an elevated 19.5 points.
The matchup against Dan Hurley’s Huskies could be one for the ages. UConn clearly brings championship pedigree to the table, and while arguably not as dominant as some of the school’s recent squads, they still boast a 33-5 record since the start of the campaign. UConn has threaded the needle in the last two March Madness games — albeit against elite competition — as they edged Michigan State by a 67-63 score in the Sweet 16 before Sunday’s nail-biter against Duke. Senior forward Tarris Reed Jr. has been a force over the four games and will undoubtedly be a focal point of Illinois’ defensive efforts, as he’s averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.3 blocks and 1.0 steals in the tournament.
Is Illinois a Good Pick to Win the Men’s College Basketball National Championship?
The Fighting Illini’s success in the tournament has certainly been a riveting story, but Brad Underwood’s squad’s run could come to a halt versus the Huskies. Reed’s dominance down low and on the defensive end presents a monumental challenge, and UConn has a versatile group of defenders that could help make life difficult on Wagler. The Huskies also have the priceless intangible of continuity on their side, as five players — Reed, Silas Demary Jr., Solo Ball, Alex Karaban and Jaylin Stewart — have been with the team since the 2024-25 season or prior.
Consequently, I’m in the camp of taking the Huskies at +2.5, with an outright upset also very much in play.
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With March Madness — and the Final Four in particular — one of the biggest annual events on the betting calendar, there is no shortage of odds shopping that a bettor can do to lock in the best possible lines. There isn’t too much variance between sportsbooks on this pair of marquee Final Four matchups given how closely matched these teams are.
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Photo Credit: AP/Stephanie Scarbrough
