Jaylen Waddle Traded to Broncos, AFC West Futures Market Analysis

By Richard Janvrin | Mar 17, 2026, 5:33pm

The Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos struck a blockbuster deal with the Dolphins shipping wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and a fourth-round pick to the Denver Broncos for a first, third, and fourth-round pick. This move came after a lot of discussion about the Broncos not making any free-agent moves.

Now, they get a top-tier wide receiver to pair with Courtland Sutton and give Bo Nix a dynamic weapon on offense. Below, we’ll examine this deal more closely by looking at the AFC West, Broncos player prop bets, the team’s futures odds, and how this impacts futures odds for Nix, Sutton, and Waddle.

AFC West Odds

Despite the Broncos making it to the AFC Championship Game last season and losing (most likely) because Nix was injured, they come in third at +225.

Starting with the Chiefs, I understand how they’re No. 1. It’s easy to point to last season and label it as an outlier. They also added running back Kenneth Walker III and have two first-round draft picks, including one in the top 10. However, we don’t know what those picks will turn into. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL in the late season, the offensive line needs improvement, and they lost both of their starting cornerbacks. The Chiefs are a popular narrative pick, but I’d “sell” them at these odds.

The Chargers are much more intriguing because I feel as though this team is just a healthy starting five along the offensive line away from making some noise in the playoffs, but at the same time, that’s what’s said almost every season, and it just never quite materializes. That said, if it can, and they target someone like Olaivavega Ioane, they’ll be an impenetrable unit with one of the better young quarterbacks in Justin Herbert.

Looking at the Broncos, it’s hard not to buy them at +225. This is almost entirely the same roster. They did lose John Franklin-Myers, which will leave an impact, but they still have Sean Payton at the helm, and I’m excited about what Davis Webb can do as offensive coordinator. Last year, the offense ranked in the top 12 in total yards per game, and now they add a threat like Waddle, who can really allow Sutton to do more damage downfield. Waddle is the type of receiver who lives in that 10-19 yard range, while Sutton saw more than 20% of his targets last season come on passes 20-plus yards downfield.

Add in other pieces like Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin, and the running back duo of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, and this could be quite a dynamic offense.

Buy the Broncos at .

Denver Broncos Player Prop Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Regular Season Receiving Yards Odds

Odds: 874.5

Over his career ,Waddle has had 875 receiving yards or more in all but one season, 2024, when he played in 15 games.

That came playing alongside Tyreek Hill. Now, he’s going to an offense that called a pass play 58.78% of the time, which was ninth in the NFL. Remember, Nix led the NFL in pass attempts. Now, he completed under 64% of his passes and went for under 4,000 yards, so this isn’t the case of a Matthew Stafford-like situation where he’s throwing a bunch in raking in the yards.

Looking over the target share, Sutton led the way at 21.2%, followed by Franklin (17.8%), Evan Engram (13%), and Harvey (9.9%).

I certainly expect Waddle to eat into Franklin’s target share, and he finished with 104 targets and 709 yards.

The Broncos’ running back left a bit to be desired last season, and while I don’t think Nix is throwing for 5,000 yards any time soon, you don’t make this kind of trade for Waddle to be just another guy on the roster.

I’ll take the Over at 874.5.

Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Jaylen Waddle Odds Impact

These are the latest futures odds for the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year awards related to Nix, Sutton, and Waddle post-trade.

Bo Nix to Win MVP:
Bo Nix to win OPOY:
Courtland Sutton to win MVP:
Courtland Sutton to win OPOY:
Jaylen Waddle to win OPOY:

As the odds show, all of these players are large underdogs to win these awards, and that’s understandable. As mentioned above, Nix led the NFL in pass attempts and it didn’t result in massive statistics.

The Broncos are middle of the pack in terms of red zone scoring attempts and touchdowns scored per game. They were also inside the top seven in offensive plays per game. Unless Nix takes a massive step forward, I cannot imagine any of these players winning individual awards of this caliber, but I do believe the team will be the team to beat in the AFC West.

Needless to say, don’t expect numbers from this offense that mirrors Miami’s when Hill and Waddle were together. Although this team will produce well, it’s unlikely to reach the level that Miami Dolphins offense reached.

Denver Broncos Futures Odds

Coming in at +1800, the Broncos are tied for seventh in odds, but the 13th team listed. These odds tell me they believe last year was a bit of a fluke, thanks to the Chargers’ offensive line injuries, the Chiefs being terrible, and the Baltimore Ravens not making it.

However, we have to remember that this team beat the Buffalo Bills in the postseason. The Bills added DJ Moore but the Broncos, who won the game and have the better defense, added Waddle.

I believe there’s a lot of talent in the AFC for the Broncos to get through, but I’d put them above teams like the New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Green Bay Packers.

This team will continue to be stout on defense and I believe the offense will improve thanks to Waddle.

I’m not sure I’m there quite yet on being willing myself to wager on them to win the Super Bowl or the AFC, but don’t let the narratives from last season cloud how good the Broncos are.

Photo Credit: AP/Doug Murray

Richard Janvrin

While attending the University of New Hampshire and pursuing a degree in English/Journalism, Richard Janvrin landed his first paid writing role, creating fantasy football and NFL content for Bleacher Report. After three years with the company, he expanded into the sports betting and iGaming space as legalized online wagering grew across the United States. Richard’s first role in the sports betting/iGaming industry came with Gambling.com, where he continues to contribute today. What began as a side hustle eventually turned into a full-time freelance career, leading to opportunities with outlets such as The Game Day, BetMGM, Forbes, LegalSportsReport, Lineups, and Pro Football Focus, among others. With more than a decade of professional writing experience, Richard has covered a wide range of topics, including sportsbook and casino reviews, prediction analysis, emerging prediction markets, and lottery coverage. His goal is to present complex subjects in a clear, engaging, and easy-to-understand format for readers of all experience levels.