MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, July 2, 2026
We had a small profit on Wednesday, as Junior Caminero hit a home run, making up for losses on Matt Olson and Rafael Devers.
Today, we’re going with Kyle Tucker, Junior Caminero, and Cal Raleigh. Each of these hitters is in a good spot.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 58-215 (+1.58 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, July 2
Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds
Kyle Tucker has been a massive disappointment in his first season with the Dodgers. The former Astros and Cubs star is currently slashing .239/.343/.379 with seven home runs in 344 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has gone from 14.7% to 20.9%, while his barrel rate has plummeted from 10.8% to 5.8%. Needless to say, the Dodgers haven’t gotten their money’s worth just yet.
However, I like riding with Tucker in this spot against the Padres at home because he’s slowly showing signs of getting on track. In his last five games, he has two multi-hit games and one home run. We just saw him work the count for four walks against the Athletics last night. At his best, Tucker is a patient hitter like that, so he seems to be working out of his slump.
Up next is a matchup against Padres’ right-hander Randy Vasquez, who is allowing a .365 wOBA against lefties this season. Vasquez has given up at least one homer in five of his last six starts, including two in his last outing.
With that in mind, let’s take Tucker to hit No. 8 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Junior Caminero Home Run Odds
Junior Caminero is on an insane hot streak right now. I took him last night, and he delivered, so we have to go back to the well here. He’s now homered nine times in his last eight games. He’s on a six-game home run streak.
This has put his slash up to .293/.383/.561 with 24 home runs in 363 plate appearances. He’s improved his walk rate from 6.3% to 12.9% while cutting his strikeout rate from 19.1% to 17.9%. This is while maintaining a 13.5% barrel rate. It’s clear that he’s now one of the best hitters in baseball.
Up next is another terrific matchup at Kauffman Stadium, a hitter’s park where forecasts are calling for 88-degree temperatures with the wind blowing out at about 12 MPH. Stephen Kolek is on the mound for the Royals. This is a righty who just gave up nine earned runs to the Cardinals, including three homers.
It’s a good time to take Caminero once again. Risk 0.1 units.
Cal Raleigh Home Run Odds
It’s been quite the disappointing follow-up to Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer season in 2025, as he’s slashing .164/.268/.304 with eight home runs in 239 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has shot up from 26.7% to 31.4%, while his barrel rate has fallen from 19.5% to 11.2%.
But I’m still a big believer that Raleigh can get going. Even if we remove his 60-homer season, before that, he hit 27, 30, and 34 homers. There’s still 40-homer upside in this bat. We’ve seen him hit safely in five of his last eight games, so perhaps he’s slowly getting going.
While Walbert Urena is a tough matchup considering how well he’s pitched, we just saw him give up seven runs to the A’s in his last outing, so he may be crashing back down to Earth. Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Raleigh to hit No. 9 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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