Best MLB NRFI & YRFI Predictions, Picks, Odds Today: No Run First Inning In Brewers-Mariners? (Tuesday, July 22)
We’ve arrived. On Friday, I suffered the first loss of my Lineups career. It was inevitable since perfection is unattainable in this business. I won’t dwell on the past, but if you want someone to blame, Lucas Giolito is your guy. Nevertheless, let’s move on and try to get back in the win column today with more NRFI predictions.
For that, I’m heading to the Pacific Northwest, targeting the hottest team in baseball. Shockingly, the Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in MLB, riding an 11-game winning streak. No matter their final score against the Seattle Mariners, I’m banking on a bet in the opening frame.
MLB No Run First Inning (NRFI) Predictions & Odds Today
| Game | NRFI | YRFI |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates | -140 | +105 |
| Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians | -125 | -105 |
| San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins | -120 | -105 |
| Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies | -115 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals | -135 | +105 |
| New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays | +100 (EV) | -130 |
| Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets | +100 (EV) | -130 |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves | +100 (EV) | -130 |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays | -125 | -105 |
| Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs | +100 (EV) | -135 |
| Athletics at Texas Rangers | -145 | +110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies | +130 | -170 |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Brewers | -160 | +125 |
| Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks | -135 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers | -110 | -120 |
Jared’s NRFI Best Bet (Tuesday, July 22)
As bettors would expect with two elite pitchers and a low total (), the price is the biggest deterrent to betting this NRFI pick. At the time of publication on Tuesday morning, I found -140 at the Westgate SuperBook. I’m also seeing -145 available at Caesars Sportsbook.
NRFI Predictions Explainer & Betting Guide
NRFI odds are part of a popular derivative market where bettors decide on a “Yes” or “No” proposition if at least one run will be scored in the first inning. This market has existed for as long as I can remember, dating back to the early 2000s, but the “NRFI” has gained popularity recently with a younger generation of gamblers because of the instant gratification factor.
It’s an exciting wager with a low horizon, which breeds volatility and bad beats. One mistake, one error, or one swing is all it takes to win or lose. I’ve both won and lost these wagers on the first pitch of the game.
Here are six variables I analyze before deciding whether I want to bet on NRFI odds:
1. Starting pitchers: This one is obvious. Certain pitchers have great overall numbers but struggle with command early in the game. Max Scherzer is a perfect example of this. You might have heard your favorite baseball announcer once say something along the lines of, “If you don’t get to this pitcher early, you won’t get to him at all,” which mirrors the fact that the first inning is historically the highest-scoring inning of the entire game.
Conversely, certain pitchers start fast and fade late. Tracking a pitcher’s NRFI record and comparing it to their overall numbers is a great way to identify these inconsistencies.
2. Starting lineup: Another no-brainer. The difference here is that you really only need to handicap the top five hitters. If the sixth hitter comes to the plate in any inning, a run has most likely already been scored, and your analysis is irrelevant. The only exception to this is if there are bases loaded with two outs and the sixth hitter comes to the plate. These situations are rare, with bases-loaded innings typically being priced at around 20-1.
Thus, it’s not a scenario that I spend too much time on. Analyzing the first five hitters in the order against a particular arm is a sufficient exercise to see if there are any advantages.
3. Weather: The ball typically travels further in warm weather with low pressure, and starting pitchers sometimes wilt in the heat. On the flip side, the ball travels less in cold weather, but pitchers can struggle to get warmed up. Therefore, there are potential contradicting factors when the temperatures are low. Wind direction is also a major factor, but it can vary greatly from inning to inning.
4. Ballpark: This is more subtle, but edges can be found if you have in-depth knowledge of each individual ballpark. Shadows are also a factor, especially with games that start around twilight. They have been moving around the start time of games a lot over the last few years, so this is a revolving door. Because the bet only involves the first inning, you really only need to examine a 30-minute window at the start of the game.
The only way to discover where the shadows are hitting (and at what time) is to watch each matchup in the first inning and take copious notes.
5. Umpires: If you have access to a database that tracks umpires, you can identify which ones have wider or smaller strike zones. I haven’t found a database yet that tracks umpires by inning, but this would be an interesting data point to analyze.
6. Situational: Teams traveling overnight tend not to take batting practice the following day. When rain is forecast, teams typically aren’t able to take batting practice before the game.
These and other situations like them, disrupting pregame activities, don’t have a major impact on the result, but they are something to keep in mind.
- Related: Best Home Run Predictions & Picks For Tuesday, July 22
Scoreless First Inning For Brewers At Mariners?
When rookie sensation Jacob Misiorowski (4-1 career NRFI) takes the mound, all eyes are on the lanky right-hander who has taken baseball by storm during his first five starts. His stuff is off the charts, ranking in the 99th percentile of fastball velo and extension.
Misiorowski’s biggest kryptonite is his command. He walks 3.86 batters per nine innings, which is on par with his minor-league metrics. Homers have also been an issue for the Brewers’ All-Star pitcher, surrendering three over his last two starts against the Mets and Dodgers.
Conversely, Mariners righty Logan Gilbert (100-33 career NRFI) is coming off an outing in which he allowed two unearned runs in the first inning against Detroit, thanks to a throwing error by his first baseman. However, Gilbert struck out nine batters over 5.1 innings, and those early runs were his only blemishes in the matchup.
Gilbert is just 4-6 to the NRFI over his last 10 starts, which is subpar. That said, he’s been fantastic at T-Mobile Park throughout his career, touting an 82% NRFI rate at home. I trust Gilbert to reverse course in this spot.
- Related: Astros-Diamondbacks Predictions & Best Bets
Final NRFI Predictions
Neither lineup really scares me in this scenario, especially Milwaukee. Despite the Brewers’ lengthy 11-game winning streak, they have failed to score an early run in eight straight games. Overall, they have posted a 58% NRFI rate this season (58-42), and that jumps to over 65% (36-19) in night games.
T-Mobile Park has also favored the pitchers early in games this season, with six straight NRFIs. Overall, the Mariners have posted a 64% NRFI rate (32-18) at home this season. In 2024, this stadium had the highest NRFI rate in baseball, at 66.7% (54-27).
Good luck with your NRFI predictions and bets for tonight’s slate!
- Join Lineups’ free sports betting Discord channel, with more than 5,100 community members discussing MLB 24-7-365.
Best Sportsbook Promos For MLB NRFI & YRFI Predictions
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS-OFF
Use Bonus Code: BETLINEUPS
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
30% Extra on Same Game Parlay Profit
T&Cs Apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-MY-RESET. 21+
Use Bonus Code: LINEUPSBET
Get $350 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed - When You Bet $5 for 7 Days!
Available on Desktop, Android & iOS
Easy Deposits, Fast Withdrawals
Bet $1, Double Your Winnings on Your Next 10 Wagers (Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost)
Stream NFL Games In-App for Free
OH only. 21+.Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET
Use Promo Code: LINEUPSDYW
Get a 100% Bet Match up to $100 in FanCash for 10 Days
Earn FanCash & Spend it on Team Swag or More Bets
Daily Odds & Profit Boosts on Select Games
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly
Plus Get up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Bet on All Your Favorite Sports With America's Top-Rated Sportsbook
To Claim: Click Play Now
MLB Betting Odds For Tuesday, July 22
