Week 3 of the NFL Season has arrived, and the divisional matchup between the Lions and Vikings is one of the games I have circled to watch on Sunday. With two high-octane offenses and two defenses that have had their issues, this should be a high-scoring game, and it has one of the highest over-under totals of the week. That provides an excellent opportunity to build a SGP with some great value. As always, I’m looking for correlation here – we want to choose bets that are likely to happen in conjunction with one another. Let’s look at our options.
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Week 3 Lions vs. Vikings Same Game Parlay
I wrote about the Lions +7 in my best bets article, but the line has continued to move in Detroit’s direction. For the purpose of this SGP, let’s buy it back to +7.5 to give us the added cushion. Even if the Vikings come out firing, which I expect them to do after a highly disappointing Monday Night Football showing, I have a firm belief that the Lions are the best backdoor cover team in the league this season.
Next, I’m adding the over 52.5 points in this game. The over has hit comfortably in both of the Lions’ games so far as they are both averaging and allowing 30 points per game. Minnesota should be able to go blow for blow in scoring with Detroit, and while this is a divisional game, these teams have played some shootouts in recent years. The last time these teams played, there was a combined 56 points, and the over would have hit in three of their last four matchups.
I’m also going to continue taking the over on Amon-Ra St. Brown player props for the time being until the market properly adjusts to his involvement in the offense. He has 8+ receptions in eight straight games, and he only needs to do that one more time to break the record for most consecutive such games. For this SGP, I’m adding his receiving yardage at 69.5 as his receptions prop isn’t posted on FanDuel at the time I’m writing this. I’m also adding him to score a touchdown, as he has scored in six straight games.
Finally, I’m going back to the well with Justin Jefferson here. He struggled last week against Darius Slay, particularly as Kirk Cousins faltered, but both should have better games this week. Jefferson will be facing either Amani Oruwariye or Jeff Okudah, both of whom will be at a major disadvantage. Jefferson’s props are sky-high, but I have no problem taking the over given the likely high-score game and plus matchup.
With all of those props put together, we are leveraging the likely high-scoring game on Sunday into a SGP full of correlative plays. When you put it all together, you end up with the following:
- Detroit Lions +7.5 (-170)
- Over 52.5 Total Points (-110)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
- Justin Jefferson Over 98.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-175)
Full SGP Odds: +1472 ($10 wins $147.24)