Should You Bet on the Atlanta Hawks to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
After remaking their team by trading Trae Young for CJ McCollum, the Atlanta Hawks have caught fire down the stretch of the 2025-26 NBA regular season and are now locked into the NBA playoff picture.
Since the All-Star Break, the Hawks lead the Eastern Conference in defensive rating (107) and are third in the NBA in net rating (12.2) ahead of the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder and trailing only the San Antonio Spurs and red-hot Charlotte Hornets in that category.
Atlanta has gone from the 10th spot in the conference to fifth and has an 88% chance to lock in that seed for the playoffs per Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probabilities page.
The ESPN Power Index gives the Hawks a small chance (1.9%) to win the East and make the NBA Finals and a minuscule 0.3% chance to win it all. But is Atlanta worth a small wager as a long shot to win the NBA championship?
Atlanta Hawks to Win Eastern Conference?
While they’ve dominated during the regular season since mid-February, the Hawks have feasted on some bad opponents. They’re still 22-27 against teams with winning records and have a modest 9-7 record in games decided by one possession or in overtime.
If Atlanta finishes fifth in the East, the Hawks will likely be road underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Those teams have played some wild high-scoring games in recent seasons with the home team taking all four matchups this season, so home court advantage could prove pivotal in that spot.
The Hawks are a tough matchup for most teams because of their excellent point-of-attack defense, led by Dyson Daniels. They can stretch the floor with Onyeka Okongwu at center and have a true all-around playmaker in Jalen Johnson. Then you have Nickeil Alexander-Walker making a huge leap offensively, as he will likely finish second in the Most Improved Player of the Year race.
With McCollum providing a huge lift in veteran leadership, the Hawks could make some noise in the playoffs. McCollum has averaged 20.7 PPG over 67 playoff games and was the second-leading scorer on a Portland team that made the Western Conference Finals in 2019.
Since early February, the Hawks have gone from odds of 100/1 to 40/1 to win the East. Some books have the Hawks down to 30/1 but few are giving them shorter odds than the top six favorites, which includes a Philadelphia 76ers team that is currently seventh in the standings.
Atlanta isn’t a great bet to navigate a field that includes playoff dynamos like the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks , but the Hawks might offer more value than an injury-prone team like the 76ers.
Best Odds: Atlanta Hawks win Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks to Win NBA Finals?
Despite their hot stretch since February, the Hawks are listed as huge longshots to win the NBA Finals with 150/1 odds.
Sportsbooks have lumped the Charlotte Hornets into that same category, so the market is still regarding the Eastern Conference as a wide-open race, but doesn’t have faith that either of those surging teams could beat the top contender from the West if they’re able to pull off multiple upsets in April and May.
Given their modest record against the top teams in the NBA and some of the defensive shortcomings they’ve flashed during the regular season, the Hawks are likely not worth backing to win the Finals, or the Eastern Conference.
This franchise went through a major overhaul this past year and has moved on from Trae Young to forge a new path, but CJ McCollum is not a “win-now” lead guard. McCollum was brought in to reset the culture and get the Hawks pointed in the right direction for future seasons.
Best Odds: Atlanta Hawks win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Mike Stewart
