Should You Bet on the Tampa Bay Lightning to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

By Kody Malstrom | Apr 06, 2026, 8:20am

While the Colorado Avalanche hog the spotlight, the Tampa Bay Lightning have quietly rivaled them at the top of the oddsboard for the Stanley Cup, sitting just eight points behind them in the overall standings. In a weak Eastern Conference void of contenders, expect the Lightning to make a deep run in the playoffs and contend for the title.

Tampa Bay Lightning to Win Eastern Conference?

After re-tooling their roster, the Tampa Bay Lightning front line have been one of the more efficient units in the league, ranking in the top-3 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their depth makes it easier for them to pressure the net for the full duration of the contest, fielding six players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.

The emergence of Nikita Kucherov has played a major role in their success this season as the Lightning forward is averaging over 1.00 Assist and 0.48 Expected Goals per game. With Kucherov pulling defensive attention away from his linemates, the width of their shooting lanes widen, leading to a heavy volume of high quality shot attempts in front of the crease.

On the other end, the Lightning have been just as dominant on defense, residing near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With their back line consistently lessening the quality of their opposing Shots on Goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy is able to wall them off at a high rate, averaging just 2.13 Goals Against per game.

With no glaring weakness at any area of the ice, the Lightning are able to reduce the amount of variance in their contests which increases their chances of winning. Especially in a playoff setting, making it hard for their opponents to take advantage of a slump in a best of seven game series.

When looking at their potential path to the Eastern Conference Finals, the Lightning are in a great position to make a run, kicking things off with a favorable matchup against the Boston Bruins who rank near dead last in Expected Goals Against. After them is a meeting against the winner of Montreal and Buffalo, two clubs who also underwhelm on defense. By the time the Lightning meet the Hurricanes, you can hedge your bet to help secure a profit.

Best Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning to Win Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning to Win Stanley Cup?

Assuming the Lightning win the Eastern Conference Championship, then they are projected to face off against the Colorado Avalanche in the finals. Two of the top contenders to win it all per their current odds to hoist the Stanley Cup, a pair of clubs who have sat at the top of the Net Ratings for a majority of the season.

While the Lightning’s over reliance on Vasilevskiy is a cause for concern the deeper they get into the playoffs, he has proven he is capable of maintaining his high level of play even when his legs start to wear out. A frequent contender for the Vezina Trophy, Vasilevskiy’s production in net will give the Avs front line fits, bringing them hard back down to reality.

With their back line capable of face guarding Nathan MacKinnon without having to shade a help side defender towards him, this will make it easier for them to clog their shooting lanes in front of the net. By slowing down the Avs, the Lightning will be able to match their output and keep it close on the scoreboard.

If the bracket does break their way and the Lightning play the likes of Edmonton, Dallas, or Vegas, then they will be the slight favorite on the series moneyline. While the Oilers back line have struggled to stay in front of the puck, the Stars and Golden Knights weaknesses reside on offense, ranking just league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations.

With each previously mentioned contender struggling with at least one area of the ice, you can let your position on the Lightning ride, or hedge it if you would want to secure a profit. Especially if Kucherov is able to round back into dominant form after returning from injury, giving the Lightning the versatility they need to put away their competition.

Best Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning to Win Stanley Cup

Any Tampa Bay Lightning Players to Win Conn Smythe?

When at full health, Kucherov has been able to thrive, rivaling Connor McDavid for the most points in the league. With Steven Stamkos gone, Kucherov has also been more aggressive in his efforts of scoring, averaging 3.11 Shots on Goal per game. If the Lightning make a run to the finals, then Kucherov’s versatility will be vital to their success, making him the clear favorite to win the Conn Smythe.

If Kucherov is unable to shake off the rust, then expect Jake Guentzel to shoulder a heavier workload to help keep their offense competitive. Even when his linemate was out with an injury, Guentzel was able to avoid regression while dealing with more help side defenders, averaging 0.44 Expected Goals and 2.68 Shots on Goal per game.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is also an intriguing option to win the award as his production in net will be on full display with the Lightning goalie expected to start in nearly every game throughout the playoffs. With multiple players capable of winning the Conn Smythe for the Lightning, place half a unit on Kucherov and a quarter of a unit on Guentzel and Vasilevskiy to help diversify your portfolio.

Photo Credit: AP/Jason Behnken

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.