Thursday’s NIT Semifinals Gameday Guide: Picks, Preview, Odds & Analysis
While the “other” Final Four is garnering the majority of headlines, the NIT is set for clashes between its top quartet of remaining tournament teams.
Both of Thursday’s semifinal games see the favorites carrying single-digit projected advantages, so the potential for a pair of wire-to-wire matchups is there. Without further ado, here’s a closer look at Thursday’s pair of semifinal-round matchups:
Thursday’s NIT Semifinals Locations & Schedule
Below is a list of NIT quarterfinals games sorted by location, tip-off time, and tv channel.
Hinkle Fieldhouse – (Indianapolis, IN)
- New Mexico , vs. Tulsa – 7:00 p.m./ESPN
- Illinois State vs. Auburn , – 9:30 p.m./ESPN
New Mexico vs. Tulsa Game Odds & Analysis
The Lobos have landed in the NIT Final Four via a trio of impressive double-digit victories. New Mexico made quick work of Sam Houston by a 107-83 score in the opening round before knocking off George Washington, 86-61, in the second round. They then were tested in the first half of the quarterfinal-round battle against Saint Joseph’s, but following a 39-37 halftime deficit, they roared back with a 47-30 second-half advantage. Freshman forward Tomislav Buljan led the way with a 27-point, 11-rebound double-double, while fellow first-year player Jake Hall contributed 24 points and four rebounds to serve as a great wingman.
The Golden Hurricane is arguably the more battle-tested of the two between them and the Lobos, considering Tulsa’s NIT journey has been fraught with close calls at every turn. Eric Konkol’s squad barely got out of the first round, but they managed an 89-84 overtime win against Stephen F. Austin and then endured a second-half rally by UNLV to notch a 77-66 win in the second round. They then toughed out an 83-79 victory over Wichita State in the quarterfinals, another game where they allowed the opponent to climb back into the contest in the second half. Tulsa’s 52-36 halftime lead eventually evaporated altogether on multiple occasions in the second half, but Tulsa finished on a 10-5 run over the final 3:21 to escape.
The stat sheet for this matchup portends what could be a high-scoring affair. Tulsa ranks 15th in the nation with 85.4 points per game on 47% shooting, including 38.4% from behind the arc. Meanwhile, New Mexico isn’t too far behind, having averaged 81.5 points with 46.3% shooting, including 36.3% from distance. While both defenses were serviceable and the Lobos were slightly more effective at point suppression (70.8 PPG allowed, compared to Tulsa’s 73.3), there’s more than enough offensive firepower on either side for this to potentially turn into a buzzer-to-buzzer, high-scoring battle.
Illinois State vs. Auburn Game Odds & Analysis
The Redbirds are 23-12 as they come into this semifinal-round clash, having notched victories of 21, 3, and 6 points over their first three tournament games. Illinois State convincingly disposed of Kent State, 79-58, to open NIT proceedings before squeaking by Wake Forest, 78-75, in the second round on Johnny Kinziger’s three-pointer with two seconds remaining. They then withstood a late second-half surge from Dayton in the quarterfinal round that saw them get to within five points twice. The Flyers ultimately managed a 61-55 win after having boasted a 10-point halftime lead.
The Tigers came into the tournament with just a 17-16 record, but Auburn has handled itself as if it fully belonged as a top-tier team. Steven Pearl’s crew has played particularly impressive defense in two of its first three NIT games, but when the occasion has called for it, they’ve also stepped it up on the offensive end. Auburn bested South Alabama by a 78-67 score in the opening round, then outlasted Seattle by a 91-85 margin in the second round despite the Redhawks’ 54-point second half in response to an 11-point halftime deficit. The Tigers then clamped down again in last Wednesday’s six-point quarterfinal-round win over Nevada, losing some of their 12-point halftime advantage but still gutting out a 75-69 victory led by Elijah Price’s 22-point, 11-rebound double-double that also included four blocks.
The Tigers have a significant offensive advantage on paper, but the same can be said for the Redbirds on the defensive end. Auburn ranks 42nd in the nation with 82.6 on 45.7% shooting, but the Tigers are also surrendering 78.9 points per game on 46.4% shooting, with the former number ranking them an unsightly 312th in the country. In contrast, Illinois State is putting up a relatively middling 74.9 points per contest (203rd in the country), but the 67.9 points per game they concede (on 43.1% shooting) is the 39th-lowest figure in the nation. Therefore, this will be a strength-on-strength matchup that should be fascinating to watch, and Illinois State’s relative dearth of consistent scoring beyond Chase Walker and Kinziger could leave the Redhawks a bit short of fully capitalizing on Auburn’s defensive deficiencies.
Men’s NIT Semifinals Best Bet
As just alluded to, there’s a chance the Tigers’ defense allows Illinois State to hang around even if Auburn is able to establish an early lead. However, it bears noting the Tigers were a bit more proficient at impact plays on the defensive end than the Redhawks despite the latter’s better points-allowed metrics, as Auburn ranks 66th with 4.2 blocks per game and also has recorded 7.3 swipes per contest. The guard trio of Tahaad Pettiford, Kevin Overton and Elyjah Freeman all averaged more than 1.0 steal per game, as did forward Sebastian Williams-Adams.
Meanwhile, all of Keyshawn Hall, Pettiford, Overton and KeShawn Murphy averaged double-digit points for Auburn, giving the Tigers a deep group of viable scorers. The Redhawks have the ability to make things difficult for an extensive stretch of the game, but I ultimately see the Tigers, which have won each of their first three tournament games by at least six points, squeezing out a cover.
Best Bet: Auburn
Photo Credit: AP/Butch Dill
