Top March Madness Upsets to Watch for on Sunday, March 22, 2026
The first day of the Round of 32 is over, and eight more teams, including Michigan and Michigan State, are moving on. On Day 2, March 22, there aren’t any games featuring a double-digit seed. The lowest seed is No. 9 Iowa, and Utah State is taking on the No. 1 seed in their region.
With that in mind, see my three upsets to watch for on this slate.
Top March Madness Upsets for Sunday
- Miami-Florida (+7.5) over Purdue
- Kentucky (+4.5) over Iowa State
- Iowa (+10.5) over Florida
Miami-Florida (+7.5) Over Purdue
Miami is coming off a big-time win over No. 10 Missouri in the first round, beating them 80-66. What’s interesting about this game against Purdue is that the second-round matchup is a 12:10 ET tip-off, while Miami didn’t finish its game against Missouri until around midnight on March 20. So, that’s not a lot of time to rest up in what was a physical matchup.
Still, in that game, Malik Reneau was great. He put up 24 points and six rebounds. Other players made great contributions, too, including Shelton Henderson (15 points, six rebounds, four assists), Ernest Udeh Jr. (10 rebounds), and Tre Donaldson (17 points, eight rebounds, six assists).
As for Purdue, they skated right past Queens, NC, 104-71. Braden Smith had 26 points and eight assists. He broke the all-time assists record, too. Trey Kaufman-Renn added 25 points. The Boilermakers were also fantastic from beyond the arc, shooting 58.3%. They limited Queens to just 46.2%.
According to KenPom, Purdue is the No. 1 team in the country in offensive efficiency (123.0) and 35th in defensive efficiency (100.4). Miami also has a good offense, ranking 32nd in offensive efficiency (121.4), and is right around Purdue in defensive efficiency, ranking 37th (100.4).
I’m quite excited for the matchup of Smith and Donaldson. I also think Purdue could have some trouble dealing with Henderson, as it’ll likely be C.J. Cox or Fletcher Loyer on him, and Henderson is bigger than both of them. I’ll take a swing on the upset here at +7.5. Jai Lucas gets a big-time win in his first season.
Kentucky (+4.5) Over Iowa State
Kentucky had quite the scare in the first round against Santa Clara, but after a crazy back-and-forth exchange at the end of regulation and pulling it off in overtime, the Wildcats advance. In their 89-84 overtime win, Otega Oweh had 35 points on 11 of 24 shooting, along with eight rebounds and seven assists.
Mouhamed Diubate, Brandon Garrison, and Denzel Aberdeen also had double-digit points. The Wildcats 3-point shooting was up a bit from where it’s been, shooting 35.7% from beyond the arc. They did, however, commit 11 turnovers, something they just cannot do against Iowa State.
Iowa State blasted Tennessee State, 108-74. This was despite Joshua Jefferson leaving after just a few minutes. While his X-rays were negative and it wasn’t an Achilles injury, Jefferson is unlikely to play in this game, and that’s where I think a Kentucky upset has an opening. Jefferson is among the best players in the country, averaging 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. Without him, this will force some lineup changes, and of course, his production won’t be on the court.
Iowa State is 17th in offensive efficiency (124.2) and fifth in defensive efficiency. They rank fifth in forcing turnovers per game, so that’s something Kentucky definitely needs to be on the lookout for.
Without Jefferson, Kentucky has a shot. They may need to slow things down a bit, limit Iowa State’s possessions, and be extremely conscious of not turning the ball over. I’d like to see more from Collin Chandler, too. He’s shooting 41% from 3-point range, but he’s just 2 of 12 over his last two games. A lot needs to go right, but there’s potential for upset.
Iowa (+10.5) Over Florida
While many may see a No. 9 seed against a No. 1 seed, especially a No. 1 seed that won it all last year, it’s easy to write off Iowa, but not so fast.
In the first round, Iowa took down Clemons, 67-61. Bennett Stirtz had 16 points despite a poor day shooting the ball. Kael Combs and Alvaro Folgueiras had double-digit points, too. The Hawkeyes shot just 28% from beyond the arc. They managed a six-point win despite allowing 11 points off their turnovers.
Iowa also played extremely slowly in that win with 55 possessions, which is an incredibly slow-moving game, even for them, as they average 64.6 possessions per game. Still, that’s dead last in the country.
As for Florida, they’re 29th in possessions, averaging 74.1 per outing. They’re coming off a 114-55 domination over Prairie View. Six players had double-digit points, including Rueben Chinyelu, who had 13 rebounds as well.
Iowa is the No. 23 overall team according to KenPom, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency (122.5) and 31st in defensive efficiency (99.6). As for Florida, they’re No. 4 overall and are ninth in offensive efficiency (125.9) and sixth in defensive efficiency (91.8).
Coming out of the Big Ten, Iowa is used to physical games against big teams, so I’m not so much worried about that. I’ll be curious to see if Iowa can manage to dictate the pace of this game. If they can, they have an opening for an upset, or at the very least, covering the spread.
Photo Credit: AP/Jeff Roberson
